Fifa World Ranking

[Malkay]

They could use a similar system like in 2006.

https://www.socceramerica.com/public...draw-pots.html

Pot 1: Top 8 of the FIFA ranking
Pot 2: Africa & South America & Oceania
Pot 3: Europe
Pot 4: Asia & Concacaf

The problem with that is that, at the draw, 2 teams will be undecided until the inter-confederation playoff in mid June. So that grouping wouldn't make sense as the playoffs are 5th placed in South America v AFC round 4 winner and 4th placed in Concacaf v winner of Oceania.

All pots by seeding seems the most logical and explicable but I wouldn't rule out results in other qualifiers falling our way, having a ranking that puts us in pot 2 on merit, then FIFA deciding at the 11th hour to make it geographical in a split I mentioned a few posts back. They've said nothing about this draw so far which is really poor.

Geographically we can't be grouped with Africa because a pot consists of 8 teams and there are guaranteed 5 of them and 4 of us... it makes more sense for us to be grouped with the other South American teams as we have a playoff with them and taking the other rogue TBC team (Concacaf or OFC) then it being factored into the draw so that there's a fail safe to ensure Concacaf teams in different pots can't be paired as well as Brazil and Argentina avoiding the other South American teams in a different pot (which happens every world cup draw).

There's nothing that can impact rankings after this week anyway. Once the dust settles and February's ranking is updated, perhaps Fifa will give more information. I feel like we should draw a line under this until details of the draw are clearer, which we hope will be before our final qualifiers in late March. I appreciate I'm probably most guilty of commenting on rankings, pot outcomes and draw scenarios so I'll keep quiet until our next games. Other than to say good luck Panama and Costa Rica for this evening!

[DR Strangemoosh]

Top 15 - Guaranteed
Top 17 - Likely
Top 18 - Kinda likely
Top 19-20 - Possible but needs a lot of luck
----------------
Iran is officially ranked 22 (though 21 on the live rankings after today's game) . If winning all remaining games, then is likely to reach ranking of 19-20. Wales (ranked 19) has only 20 more Fifa ranking points than Iran, but there is a gap between them and 18th Croatia.
The top 15 seeded teams which qualify for the world cup, and Qatar will be in Pots 1 and 2. In 2018 Iran was ranked 34 and made Pot 3.
These are the only teams ranked above Iran for which qualification is still uncertain:
Chile (FIFA rank 21, ranked 6th in SA qualifiers)
Wales (FIFA rank 19, ranked 3rd in group E)
Switzerland (FIFA rank 14, ranked 2nd in group C) - may need to play-off
Croatia (FIFA rank 18, ranked 2nd in group H) - may need to play off
Senegal (FIFA rank 20) - will need to play off against a runner up from another group which could be Cameroon, Ghana etc... at the moment)
Sweden (FIFA rank 17) - may need to play off if they become 2nd in group now
Portugal (FIFA rank 8) - may need to play off if they remain 2nd in group
I think there's a good possibility that ~3 of these teams may not make the WC.
So it really needs the other likely-to-be-qualified teams unexpectedly lose games, affecting their fifa ranking adversely, for Iran to make Pot 2 (with the assumption that Iran wins ALL remaining games), and also needs some luck if US doesn't qualify, or Colombia and Uruguay lose games against Peru/Venezuela etc...
Being in Pot 2 will be absolutely HUGE for Iran's chances of getting to the next round. This is still very speculative and needs a lot to happen.

Just re-quoting this from a few months ago. Reminder that the pots and seeding process changed before 2018 world cup and remains the same since.

I think 17th is definitely possible...

[PrinceAli]

On top of either Portugal or Italy missing out, there’s technically a chance that Wales (19) and Sweden (17) don’t qualify for the WC. If that happens, that would be enough to get into Pot 2 I believe

Wales needs to beat Austria and then Ukraine/Scotland and Sweden needs to beat Czech and then Russia/Poland. There’s a very real chance of them losing out

[DR Strangemoosh]

I know that "you should be able to beat anyone" in a WC - but i remember how my heart sank when we ended up with Spain, Portugal and the "dark horses" of that WC Morocco. I genuinely think we did valiantly 1-0 0-1 1-1 considering our depth in midfield and relative inexperience in defence at this kind of level, but it was a tough draw...

Avoiding teams like Netherlands, Germany, Denmark who may ALL be in pot 2 if the current predicted scenario unfolds... would be critical (knowing Iran's luck we won't get USA or Mexico who will likely be in pot 2).

I just can't see Iran beating any of the top 8 fifa rankings teams AND holland/germany/denmark.... As we are in the same continent as qatar we can't get them.

[milad_b]

I know that "you should be able to beat anyone" in a WC -

lol This quote "you should be able to beat anyone" does not apply to asian , north american or african teams. It only applies to teams that are planning to win world cup! Teams like Argentina, brazil , england , germany etc...

So i hope we get:
italy (i'm sure they will qualify)
Egypt/Morocco (good chance of making it)
Canada

1 win 2 draws

[Farzadfarhangni]

On top of either Portugal or Italy missing out, there’s technically a chance that Wales (19) and Sweden (17) don’t qualify for the WC. If that happens, that would be enough to get into Pot 2 I believe

Wales needs to beat Austria and then Ukraine/Scotland and Sweden needs to beat Czech and then Russia/Poland. There’s a very real chance of them losing out

Qatar gets a pot 1 spot. So top seven teams join Qatar in pot 1 and eight more in pot 2. So we have to be in the top 15... Now getting to 17 spot means that 2 of the teams below us must not qualify for WC. There are only 3 teams in the top 16 that have not already qualified yet, Uruguay, Italy and Portugal. Uruguay is pretty set to qualify, so we are going to need either Turkey or North Macedonia to beat both Italy and Portugal. Italy plays North Macedonia and Portugal plays Turkey and the winner of these two games play each other and the ultimate winner makes it to WC. Come on Turkey or North Macedonia...

BTW, there is no plain Macedonia and no South Macedonia, no East Macedonia and no West Macedonia. Why do they call themselves North Macedonia?

[Lorestani]

Qatar gets a pot 1 spot. So top seven teams join Qatar in pot 1 and eight more in pot 2. So we have to be in the top 15... Now getting to 17 spot means that 2 of the teams below us must not qualify for WC. There are only 3 teams in the top 16 that have not already qualified yet, Uruguay, Italy and Portugal. Uruguay is pretty set to qualify, so we are going to need either Turkey or North Macedonia to beat both Italy and Portugal. Italy plays North Macedonia and Portugal plays Turkey and the winner of these two games play each other and the ultimate winner makes it to WC. Come on Turkey or North Macedonia...

BTW, there is no plain Macedonia and no South Macedonia, no East Macedonia and no West Macedonia. Why do they call themselves North Macedonia?

They had to because of Greece. There is a Macedonia in Greece, that's why.

[Preezy]

I’m reading misleading and inaccurate information here so I will clear this up for everyone.


Iran’s FIFA rank is currently 21.
According to the current ELO system, Iran’s next FIFA ranking with current results is 20.

Iran needs to be ranked top 16 for pot 2.

Qatar is in pot 1, and they aren’t ranked top 16. However, at least one of Italy or Portugal can’t qualify and therefore
Iran will be pot 2 if ranked top 16.

There are currently 9 teams above Iran who haven’t qualified.
These teams are:

Italy (6)
Portugal (8)
USA (11)
Mexico (14)
Colombia (16)
Uruguay (17)
Sweden (18)
Wales (19)
Senegal (20)

Iran (21) doesn’t have to be ranked top 16 for pot 2.
Iran can get pot 2 as long as 5 of these teams don’t qualify because then there are only 15 teams qualified above Iran (including Qatar).

I don’t know if FIFA will release an updated rank after AFCON or wait until the World Cup draws.
If they do release it before, then Senegal will be ranked below Iran in the next FIFA ranking unless they win their remaining AFCON games.

They also have a playoff game vs Egypt for qualification.

Italy and/or Portugal won’t qualify. At least one of then won’t.

Mexico and/or USA can lose out on qualification if Panama and Costa Rica catch up.

Panama has one point less than Mexico and USA with 4 games left to play.

Colombia is currently 7th in the CONMEBOL qualifiers. Uruguay is also in danger because of Ecuador, Peru and Chile.

Sweden and Wales have to win against two different teams to qualify which is tough.


Iran needs to be ranked top 16 or that 5 out of these 9 teams don’t qualify, in order to get pot 2.

[naderb94]

Very strong chance one of Columbia/Uruguay doesn't make it.
Wales and Sweden will both have tough draws to getting in
One of Italy/Portugal won't qualify either.

Senegal is going up against CQ's Egypt. I can see that being 50-50.
I honestly think both Mexico and USA will qualify but hoping they squander somewhere and Panama can catch them

[DR Strangemoosh]

I’m reading misleading and inaccurate information here so I will clear this up for everyone.
Iran’s FIFA rank is currently 21.

We are operating on live rankings.

One can know the exact "on the day" ranking based on FIFA's algorithm for FIFA points after each individual match.

FIFA don't publish this of course until the monthly update, but football-ranking does. Their data here is 100% accurate, in that any "predicted" fifa rankings becomes the monthly ranking:

https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings

[milad_b]

I’m reading misleading and inaccurate information here so I will clear this up for everyone.
Iran’s FIFA rank is currently 21.
According to the current ELO system, Iran’s next FIFA ranking with current results is 20.
Iran needs to be ranked top 16 for pot 2.
Qatar is in pot 1, and they aren’t ranked top 16. However, at least one of Italy or Portugal can’t qualify and therefore
Iran will be pot 2 if ranked top 16.
There are currently 9 teams above Iran who haven’t qualified.

Well iran is currently ranked 20th with 1,572.89 points and senegal has 1,566.72 points. They are playing Burkina Faso and if they win they'll get 14.47 points and if they win on penalties they lose 4.47 points. If they lose nothing happens to their points. egypt will knock them out of WCQ anyways

So Top ranked 15 teams + qatar will get pot 1 and 2 .

Peru , Colombia , Uruguay - either 1 or 2 of them won't make it . Which is good for us. My guess is both peru and colombia won't make it.
Italy/Portugal = 1 or 2 won't make it
Wales/Sweden = Both have a chance to make it but my guess is only 1 of them will make it.

So looking at 2018 example if 3 teams don't make it then us ranked 18th will be in pot 2. Ofc WE HAVE TO WIN south korea and lebanon game.

However saying all that means nothing because fifa hasn't decide the procedure for seedings yet. I've read that know one knows how the seeding will be played out by fifa. I think they are over thinking it. I hope they stick to 2018 seeding plan.

[DR Strangemoosh]

COME ON Les Etalons

[PrinceAli]

Damn Senegal just scored in 70th minute. Likely headed to Final

[DR Strangemoosh]

Damn Senegal just scored in 70th minute. Likely headed to Final

fak...

[PrinceAli]

2-0 now. Gonna need Cameroon/Egypt to take care of business in the Final


Although, Senegal actually has to face Egypt in WCQ playoff so if Egypt beats them in March we won’t even need to worry about Senegal. Hopefully CQ can help Iran out once again