World Cup 2018 Group Stage Simulation

[Damavand]

We can. Top teams are in pot 1, pot 4 is the Europeans and pot 2 gets one European team.

No the last WC they did say that no group can have more than 2 UEFA teams. I am pretty sure it will be the same this time.

[koush22]

No the last WC they did say that no group can have more than 2 UEFA teams. I am pretty sure it will be the same this time.

Oh! Thanks for letting me know.

[Under Lahaf]

Germany
Uruguay
Iran
Spain

let's sell our spot to Qatar

[Leopard]

This is good work and it is appreciated.
Let's now be afraid of any teams. remember Dejagah almost scored on Argentina. Bad ref killed the TM chance.
It all depends on the first match against whom. TM can put up a good fight. If the reserves get better by 2018, then they can help in the second match. The reserves against Syria were not good enough so we have to do something....
What we need to do is to forget about beating the top 10 FIFA teams for now. So we can concentrate on developing to defeat the 11th ranking to 23 rd which are above us. If we achieve this then we will be able to move to next phase at the world cup

[BacheLot]

Thanks for making this, very interesting.
On one hand I want an easier group so we can get to the second round, but on the other hand I want TM to face multiple super tough teams like Germany and get a shock result. Imagine the world's reaction to that [emoji23]
But no matter how easy our group is, if we don't play friendlies against decent opposition we're gonna be unprepared and unready for the tournament, at least for our high expectations!


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I think the Syria game Proved the fact that were Still highly 1dimentional tactically (A Primarily Defensive, counter-attacking side..!) It remains to be seen if were capable of adapting to a more Offensive tactic in the short run-up to WC..!? (if not offensive, @ least a more Balanced approach..!)
Seeing as clearly our Strength as Team lies in our Organized Team Defending and primarily Attacking on Counters, it may even be better for us to be grouped with (not necessary Elite football power Teams) but above average footballing nations who would consider their game against us at WC as a must win, 3pointers..!! Then Honestly we stand the better chance of Surprising them with our Team Defensive Prowess and hitting them with a winner off the break..!!

im next to certain CQ will Primarily revert back to his preferred Defensive/Countering tactics for our WC games and only risk a more offensive/open formation (probably) in the final match depending how desperate we are for points for progress outa of the group stage..!

[Leopard]

One thing we can do to gauge our team compared to the team of 4 years ago.
Let's do a chart and put who is still there and who took the place of whom. For example Ando. who has taken his place. If we think Karimi took the place of Neku or Ando,then we know what to expect if we do not improve in the next 6 months.
with the comparison chart we can quickly see how much better or worse we are. We have the same coach so that makes it easier. Does anyone have the line up against Argentina? we also should compare the benches. After this is done we will have reasoable expetations.
Comparing the benches can define what can happen in the second match of the group stage

[Leopard]

One thing I forgot to say so I ask you. Are we better now since we qualified more easily this time?
If there is a weakness in any area, CQ can ask the PGL coaches or help to develop the potential candidates or those spots. When a player knows that he has been spotted by CQ but not chosen yet, I am sure he will do a lot of exercises and will have the best diet and will not even be shy to ask Ali Karimi to teach him how to dribble better
we can also give rating to each player from last cup and the team that played against Korea and get the totals and compare

[koush22]

One thing I forgot to say so I ask you. Are we better now since we qualified more easily this time?

According to my model, we are. The model takes into account FIFA ranking, % of max points in final round of qualification and normalized goal difference. All three of these variables are higher for us this time compared to last time. We have a higher FIFA ranking, we picked up more points than last time and had a better GD due to our defensive record.

[Ab-Gosht]

good post thanx.

imo we want to get russia as top seed no matter what. but only 1/8 we can so i guess it wont happen

[Ab-Gosht]

One thing we can do to gauge our team compared to the team of 4 years ago.
Let's do a chart and put who is still there and who took the place of whom. For example Ando. who has taken his place. If we think Karimi took the place of Neku or Ando,then we know what to expect if we do not improve in the next 6 months.
with the comparison chart we can quickly see how much better or worse we are. We have the same coach so that makes it easier. Does anyone have the line up against Argentina? we also should compare the benches. After this is done we will have reasoable expetations.
Comparing the benches can define what can happen in the second match of the group stage

against Nigeria CQ only played to get 0-0 and we had no chance of winning but also we had like 50% of getting 0-0. If we would play again CQ would go for victory but because of that we also have bigger chance of losing! Despite having a stronger team this year.

[koush22]

good post thanx.

imo we want to get russia as top seed no matter what. but only 1/8 we can so i guess it wont happen

I wish Russia played qualification so my model could assign a skill rating for them. But considering they are 50 fifa ranking spots below all the other teams in pot 1, I assume they'd be the easiest opponent.

My model just rates them as the average of all other teams.

[Keano]

Thank you for this great thread, your effort is much appreciated!

Although I may disagree on considering Sweden one of the easier opponents, as we have historically struggled against physical and tall teams. Our last encounter with them 2 years ago is a clear example of my argument.

Our defenders and goalies typically, struggle on most set-pieces inside our own box. Be it the keepers exits on aerial balls, or the players positioning and marking their men in the box on the opponents set-pieces.


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[perspolis#1]

Luck plays just as big a part in the draw. If we got a really tough draw it would be harder but not impossible.

We need a team or two we match up well with.

If our group was Colombia Iran Greece and Tunisia we have a decent chance as we are just as technical as these teams with an equality in physicality.

Teams like Nigeria, England, Ivory Coast, we might struggle more against because of how taxing it will be on our team.

You have to trust your team. I wil lwatch the world cup hoping that we have just as much a chance to take 2nd place in the group.

We mihht get unlucky or something but while we lost experience in Neko/Ando we have improved in every other position. One could argue that those two had a lack of pace which made it hard to spring counters in 2014.

[inarsenewetrust]

One thing we can do to gauge our team compared to the team of 4 years ago.
Let's do a chart and put who is still there and who took the place of whom. For example Ando. who has taken his place. If we think Karimi took the place of Neku or Ando,then we know what to expect if we do not improve in the next 6 months.
with the comparison chart we can quickly see how much better or worse we are. We have the same coach so that makes it easier. Does anyone have the line up against Argentina? we also should compare the benches. After this is done we will have reasoable expetations.
Comparing the benches can define what can happen in the second match of the group stage

--------------------Haghighi-----------

--Sadeghi----Montazeri-----Hosseini-----Pooladi

-----------Ando------Nekounam-----

---Dejagah--------Shojaei----------Hajsafi-----

------------------Gucci-------------

Bench :
2Heydari
8Haghighi
9Jahanbakhsh
10Ansarifard
11Haddadifar
13Mahini
17Alnameh
18Rahmani
19Beikzadeh
20Beitashour
22Davari

Russia Lineup ( lot can change in a year, but I think something like this. / marks for positions that are really up for grabs ) New players from 2014 starting xi, new to squad completely noted in BOLD . This is a 23 man squad, with one GK less than we will have in Russia, so one of the players on the list will be crossed of for I believe Akhbari .

---------Beiranvand/Haghighi-------

----Ramin/Ghafouri-----Montazeri-----PAG-----Milad

------------Ezatolahi-------Ebrahimi/Hajsafi----

Jahanbakhsh--------Dejagah------------Ghoddos

-----------------------Sardar------------

Bench : Gucci
Taremi
Ansarifard
Torabi
Hosseini
Cheshmi
Ansari
Rezaei
Amiri


Analysis :

verdicts of better, worse, no change, noted in Bold

GK - No ChangeBeiranvand is a good GK despite his last mistake vs Syria. I dont think we have made a tremendous improvement here though.

RB -Better .Sadeghi was good defensive player, but not anywhere near the level of modern fullback that Ramin or Vouria are. Not to mention Ramin is playing for a good belgian side ( although their current results do not show it ) . Our right side doesnt let in as many crosses, and truly contributes to our offense, and is much faster, with Ramin or Vouria playing. Excellent news bc full back is one of the most tiring positions and we may need to alternate between these two in WC.

CB's . BetterDuo of montazeri and Pouraliganji is better than Montazeri and hosseini IMO , because PAG is young and fast , so we have three good options in that position as opposed to only two good ones in 2014. Not to mention they have many more games experience together, and better defenders to the left and right of them.

LB - Better Pouladi was good for us, but lets be real, Milad is on a different class. This kid is on the path to be a real star in europe . A real Sarbaz mentality, with the skill and speed to go with the tenacity.

Defense Overall :Better While our D was our best aspect in 2014, it has undoubtedly improved. We no longer are vulnerable to low crosses in between our cb and gk bc our new fullbacks cut that off, mainly due to their speed. We can deal with pressure for long periods, have gotten better at possessing the ball and not just bezan ziresh entality, and our full backs are a huge factor for us going forward. We are a good defensive team ( not the best, but definitely solid ) in comparison to the whole world, not just asia.

CDM 's - Worse . Only aspect of TM that has not gotten worse. Our guys who play deep are on solid enough defensively, but are unable to keep possession, dictate play, start offense on anywhere near the level of ando and nekounam. Ezatolahi has the most potential, but currently isnt at the required level. Maybe he will be in 3-4 years, but not now. Hajsafi is again good on defense and can contribute offensively, but cannot dictate play, He is not that type of player. Ebrahimi IMO may be our best bet there along with saeid. Even then it will not be the same level as Ando or Nekounam. But at least we have started our transition away from those guys years ago, so we will be better off in the long run.

Attacking Midfield - Better This is where TM is exciting in comparision to the dull offense on display in brazil . ARJ is one of the top 10 best players in the netherlands, maybe top 5 . Although he seems to be weighed down by TM shirt at times, he is a great offensive weapon who contributes on defense. Dejagah at CAM is excellent as well, better than shojaei there. His recent performances show that. If he is starting in a decent team this year, he will be better than the very good WC2014 dejagah too. Ghoddos is unquestionably better than hajsafi on the LW. Not to mention Taremi, Amiri, Torabi , Rezaei all capable of playing there. We are stacked in this area of the pitch.

Center Forward - Better Sardar will be our star in russia, no doubt about it. He is on the level of lazio bidding 15 million euros for him currently and that alone should be enough to say we have improved. But also, Gucci is a much better player today than he was then, as is Karimi. And guys like Taremi and Rezaei can also contribute here. Another area of immense improvement in TM. Not to mention all these guys work their ass off defensively.

Coach - Better CQ has 4 more years experience with this team, has brought young guys in, and we play a distinct style now. Hats off to this brilliant man.

Overall : To those being pessimistic after one meaningless tie against syria, just look at this analysis. We are so improved in every possible way. With decent preparation we will have done everything humanly possible to become better. Then it is just up to luck, and mentality.

[koush22]

Here are some more groups, these are the 5 median groups in the 1000 draws. They represent the mid point of difficulty of the hypothetical groups we would face:

Switzerland
Burkina Faso
Iran
France
SR: 271.7083333

Poland
Peru
Iran
Croatia
SR: 271.7083333

Columbia
Uruguay
Iran
England
SR: 271.6875

Germany
Egypt
Iran
Sweden
SR: 271.4166667

Russia
Tunisia
Iran
England
SR: 272.3919355

I gotta be honest, the median groups don't look too easy!