World Cup Draw - How it works

[Adesor Vafaseya]

The new World Cup Draw system is great news for Iran.
Basically, this means we will avoid a group of death with 100% certainty. (For info: I consider a group of death a group with 3 powerful teams)
Anyway, Iran is going to be placed in Pot 3, while the other Asian teams and African teams will be in Pot 4.
However, the rule is that teams from the same confederation cannot be drawn in the same group, with the exception of UEFA. That means the only opponents we can get from Pot 4 are African teams.
The scenario for the draw will likely be as follows:
Pot 1 (Seeded)
Russia
Germany
Brazil
Portugal
Argentina
Belgium
Poland
Switzerland
Pot 2
France
Chile
Colombia
Spain
Mexico
England
Uruguay
Italy
Pot 3
Croatia
Northern Ireland
Costa Rica
Sweden
Iran
Serbia
USA
Tunisia
Pot 4
Egypt
Japan
South Korea
Australia
Saudi Arabia
Ivory Coast
Nigeria
Burkina Faso
As you can see, we avoid all the 2nd tier European teams. Also, only the African teams from Pot 4 can be possible opponents for Iran. That means the only Pots we really have to worry about are Pot 1 and 2. With a bit of luck, we can avoid a combo of top teams such as Germany+Spain, or Argentina+France.
Hopefully we get a group like this:
Portugal
Chile
Iran
Egypt
Or
Poland
Mexico
Iran
Ivory Coast

lol
we could end up with Brazil, Spain, Iran, Nigeria.

[Taz]

r u serious. I doubt we would advance from either of thsoe groups.
best chance we have is Russia, Colombia, Iran, Burkina Faso
or
Switzerland, Mexico, Iran , Egypt.

Get a grip man, if we're going there scared of the likes of Mexico and Chile then we may aswell stay at home.

There's not a side in pot four that's clearly superior to us and Spain and France are the only pot two sides that would be truly nasty but with Russia, Poland and Switzerland in pot one, the odds of getting a group we can qualify from are very good.

We'll have to beat them all to win it anyway so who cares if we play them in the group or the Final

[perspolis#1]

The only ones that are gonna believe we can succeed are ourselves.

Fear no team. Even in a group of death.

Overtime the soccer world powers are getting arrogant. Chile fielded a pseudo B team in our friendly and we beat them pretty comfortably. If we are the minnow theres a chance we pull off upsets like Costa Rica did vs Italy/Uruguay/England.

[Bi-honar]

I like your optimism guys that we will end up in Pot 3, never mind pot 2!

As it stands, we could be only a couple of spots away from getting kicked out of Pot 3 the way I see it, so the Syria tie could come back to bite us in the arse and we really can't afford bad results against Togo or Russia - both ranked way below us. So, even a tie in either of those matches will hurt our ranking further.

Obviously the best case scenario is that from the current ranking, 6 UEFA teams that are ahead of us will fail to qualify, 3 teams from CONMEBOL that are ahead of us will fail to qualify, Costa Rica will also fail to qualify and no one below us in the rankings moves ahead of us. That would have moved us to the last spot in POT 2 as the absolute best case scenario.

That scenario is of course HIGHLY unlikely as Costa Rica will qualify and the US will also qualify and potentially move ahead of us in the rankings with 2 relatively easy games. That will drop us down to 3rd place in Pot 3.

From CONMEBOL, realistically only one team ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify. That will move us to spot 5 in Pot 3. And from UEFA, the worst outcome is that only 4 teams ahead of us will fail to qualify with the most likely outcome being only 3. That puts us in the 6th or 7th spot in the Pot 3 with Tunisia, Egypt and even Denmark in pursuit.

Sad to say, but any screw ups in October and we could very well drop out of Pot 3.

[Bessos]

I like your optimism guys that we will end up in Pot 3, never mind pot 2!

As it stands, we could be only a couple of spots away from getting kicked out of Pot 3 the way I see it, so the Syria tie could come back to bite us in the arse and we really can't afford bad results against Togo or Russia - both ranked way below us. So, even a tie in either of those matches will hurt our ranking further.

Obviously the best case scenario is that from the current ranking, 6 UEFA teams that are ahead of us will fail to qualify, 3 teams from CONMEBOL that are ahead of us will fail to qualify, Costa Rica will also fail to qualify and no one below us in the rankings moves ahead of us. That would have moved us to the last spot in POT 2 as the absolute best case scenario.

That scenario is of course HIGHLY unlikely as Costa Rica will qualify and the US will also qualify and potentially move ahead of us in the rankings with 2 relatively easy games. That will drop us down to 3rd place in Pot 3.

From CONMEBOL, realistically only one team ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify. That will move us to spot 5 in Pot 3. And from UEFA, the worst outcome is that only 4 teams ahead of us will fail to qualify with the most likely outcome being only 3. That puts us in the 6th or 7th spot in the Pot 3 with Tunisia, Egypt and even Denmark in pursuit.

Sad to say, but any screw ups in October and we could very well drop out of Pot 3.

For us to drop out of pot 3, one of these teams needs to overtake us in the ranking next month:

Egypt
Japan
South Korea
Australia
Saudi Arabia
Ivory Coast
Nigeria
Burkina Faso

I don't see any of these teams overtaking Iran in the next FIFA ranking. Only Egypt stands a chance, but I'm not sure how high there chance is.

[Bi-honar]

For us to drop out of pot 3, one of these teams needs to overtake us in the ranking next month:

Egypt
Japan
South Korea
Australia
Saudi Arabia
Ivory Coast
Nigeria
Burkina Faso

I don't see any of these teams overtaking Iran in the next FIFA ranking. Only Egypt stands a chance, but I'm not sure how high there chance is.

Egypt have a tough match against Ghana, so I'm less worried about them than the US, Denmark, Tunisia or even Turkey. Any one of them qualifying instead of a team that's ahead of us ha the potential to knock us out.

Of course, it if we have a solid and super performance in our two friendlies which I hope we do, I think our Pot 3 position is guaranteed. Realistically, I think we'll end up as the 6th country in that Pot.

P.S. Actually you're right, Ghana-Egypt match is not until November so they could also overtake us

[saeed_noro]

iran better win the matches vs. togo and russia, still we won´t get much points from these two friendlies, as they are very lower teams in ranking and also it is just friendly.

[Paradigm]

In your opinion, is it better to play with the strongest team (highest ranked in the group) first, second, or last? Please explain your reasoning.

[inarsenewetrust]

iran better win the matches vs. togo and russia, still we won´t get much points from these two friendlies, as they are very lower teams in ranking and also it is just friendly.

yeah we will. We have to beat a team around that level to stand a chance of advancing from the group.

[inarsenewetrust]

Egypt have a tough match against Ghana, so I'm less worried about them than the US, Denmark, Tunisia or even Turkey. Any one of them qualifying instead of a team that's ahead of us ha the potential to knock us out.

Of course, it if we have a solid and super performance in our two friendlies which I hope we do, I think our Pot 3 position is guaranteed. Realistically, I think we'll end up as the 6th country in that Pot.

P.S. Actually you're right, Ghana-Egypt match is not until November so they could also overtake us

well then we will be rooting for ghana ! Only CQ saw the importance of this fifa rankings. Being in pot 3 will give us some chance at least.

[teammelli91]

I can't believe we could get grouped with Mexico again.