How many points to get through?

[DireStraits]

I was just wondering, Does CQ live with his whole family in Iran? has anyone ever seen an article or video on CQ's lifestyle in Iran?

The family pay a visite once in a while. But what I was trying to say is that for a european it is really tough to be in Iran in Ashura time. So even he is in Thailand for a different
reason he will use the opportunity to go to town and drink a beer or something.

[Babak agha]

23 points, guaranteed 2nd place.

22 points, we can qualify with better goal difference than 3rd place team.

Here's why:

All teams have 6 games left. So if any team wins all their games, they can add another 18 points to their total. However, there are 2 games between Korea and Uzbs left. The outcomes of those games will have a major impact on how many points we need to qualify as one of the top 2 teams. Finishing second is all we need. Currently:
Iran has 10 points
Uzbaks have 9 points
Korea has 7 points

Possible outcomes of games between Korea and Uzbaks:

1. Korea wins both: Uzbs can get maximum of 12 more points ==> They get 21 points. We need 22 points to qualify on points OR 21 with better goal diff that Uzbs.

2. Uzbs win both: Korea can get maximum of 12 more points ==> They get 19 points. We need 20 points to qualify on points or 19 with better goal diff than Korea.

3. Korea and Uzbs each win one: Korea can get maximum of 15 more points ==> They get 22 pints. We need 23 to qualify on points or 22 with better goal diff than Korea.

4. Uzbs win one and tie one: Korea can get maximum of 13 more points ==> They get 20 points. We need 21 to qualify on points or 20 with better goal diff than Korea.

5. Korea wins one and ties one: Uzbs can get maximum of 13 more points ==> They get 22 points. We need 23 to qualify on points or 22 with better goal diff than Uzbs.

6. Korea and Uzbs tie both: Korea can get maximum of 14 more points ==> They get 21 points. We need 22 to qualify on points or 21 with better goal diff than Korea.

Other teams cannot get to 23 points.

So we need max of 13 more points to qualify or 12 with better goal difference (see 3 and 5 above). Most likely we can qualify with 21 or even 20 points.

We can't get 23 points if we lose to both Korea and Uzbekistan.
Be assured that neither us, Korea or Uzbekistan is going to get a 100% score against China,Syria,Qatar and one of the two others first mentioned.

3 more wins and we for sure seal the deal, as we most likely also will have a better goal difference.

[shahname]

It is not in our DNA to make things easy for ourselves; as much as I like to think that we'd cruise our way to qualification, we need to be prepared and expect disappointment along the way. Maybe a loss/tie to Syria or China??? Let's hope not, but it's been rare for us to just qualify stress-free....

You are right. It is not in our DNA. But recently we have experienced a mutation in our DNA and the name of that mutation is CQ 😁👍

[versusdamon]

Right now we got 11 points and I would still consider the home games with Syria and China as wins, so total of 17 points.
Actually now the games against Uzbekistan and South Korea really get important. Draws against all of them might actually be enough. I see us getting through with 20 points but not sure if its gonna be the first place.

[Sarbaze-Vatan]

Right now we got 11 points and I would still consider the home games with Syria and China as wins, so total of 17 points.
Actually now the games against Uzbekistan and South Korea really get important. Draws against all of them might actually be enough. I see us getting through with 20 points but not sure if its gonna be the first place.

You should have added Qatar to the bolded sentence too. It is the most important game for us at the moment. It is a tough game.

[Nokhodi]

March is going to be a mess. Players will be tired from clubs. Our major clubs and TM will fight over schedules as ACL group stage will start then too.
Players will need to be in peak physical shape.
Qatar is basically eliminated and will come to play with no stress.

[versusdamon]

Obvisouly it is important, but a win against Uzbekistan or SK would put us so far apart fro them, that a qualification would be guaranteed, as they are the only competitors for place 1-3.

[Sarbaze-Vatan]

Obvisouly it is important, but a win against Uzbekistan or SK would put us so far apart fro them, that a qualification would be guaranteed, as they are the only competitors for place 1-3.

A lose against Qatar may put us in third place at the end of next match day and put us on enormous pressure for next games. It may also kill the momentum. All focus should be on the next game which is an extremely stressful and tricky one.

[eerooni]

Lets keep in easy and simple, I say this with ease, We got more than 2 points from five games, in the 1st round of qualifiers, so now how do we qualify?, we all agree that we need 10 more points from 5 games, meaning, lets be very conservative and we do WORST than the first 5 qualifiers, we get 2 points per game on average, which is so doable I can almost taste it... so , we Win ALL our home games=9 points, we lose against Korea away 0 points and we draw Qatar away 1 point , BAM!!! we are through! But if we look at past results, I can equally say with ease, unless, a rogue ref, awards a highly suspicious penalty couple with denying a legit goal in crucial games, TM is hard to beat, and in the least we draw 2 games and win 3 like we did before. even if we draw 3 games and win 2 we are through !!

[Z Joon]

These are the current odds to qualify, we are still the most likely Asian team to go to Russia.

[CHaMiLLionaire]

Odds are a crapshoot.

It all depends on how the other scores play out. We may even qualify with 17 points if the other matches go our way.

Remember we are at an advantage because we have 3 HOME GAMES left. We can seal the deal with 3 home wins.... or two wins and a draw.


Basically, we need 8 more points to go through. The only way we would need to get to 20 points is if Uzb and Korea win all their remaining games.

If one of them drop points, then we can go through with 18 or 19 points....

[ehsan singapore]

we get a draw at qatar, that is 12, we beat china and uzbekistan that 18, a draw in korea 19 and a win at home against syria, now if we beat both qatar and 2 home games ,would be 9 and we are through

[persiangodfather]

With 3 games at home and 2 away, lets look at the worst case scenarios
All kidding aside, even tho I always say we are the under dog, Just because there isnt any games until March lets continue a discussion.
Say we tie Qatar, Which is a big possibility away. Brings us to 12 points, and probably into 3rd place in the group as Korea should beat China and UZB Should beat Syria, That will make the group extremely difficult going forward because it will give Korea and UZB more motivation when we play them.
Our Next match is with China in Azadi. If we win we will be at 15 points, Korea then has Syria, and UZB has Qatar, No point in guessing what happens in those games
So now we have 15 points next game in June vs UZB, Lets say tie.. now we have 16 points,
Then Korea in Aug, Lets say tie. 17 Points
Then lastly Syria, Which should be a W,
20 points, Should be enough to top the group.

This way leaves 0 room for error, We cant afford a loss, but I was very conservative in suggesting that we would only get 3 points from UZB,KOR,QAT. A real possible 9

[DireStraits]

We are still in good shape. We have 3 games home two away. Both UZ and South Korea have only two games home. Unles they don't do shobadebazi again by winning our 3 home games we are through unless both South Korea and UZ achieve 12 points. Very
unlikely.

[ehsan singapore]

we can beat qatar away, if we beat them, we will be excellent position, with 2 home games after that, we can do very well