my WC prediction for Iran

[milad]

i predict 0-2 loss against portugal. 1-1 with mexico and 2-1 win over angola. there is NO WAY we wont lose to portugal with our keeper and defence and with all off their stars. we will most probably beat angola and probably tie mexico.


after a long time of thinking i finally came up with these outcomes that i think one of them will definitely happen:

if iran qualifies from group stage, it will definitely be one of these ways (in order of chances that it will happen):
(all results have iran losing to portugal. And iran, mexico, portugal beating angola because im 90% sure that will be the case in 2 months)

portugal: 9 points
iran: 4 points
mexico: 4 points
angola: 0 points

portugal: 7 points
iran: 6 points
mexico: 4 points
angola: 0 points

mexico:6
iran:6 (better goal diff.)
portugal:6
angola: 0

portugal: 9 points
iran: 6 points
mexico 3 points
angola: 0 points


3 most probable ways of iran NOT qualifying from group:

portugal: 9 points
mexico: 4 points
iran: 4 points

portugal: 7 points
mexico: 5 points
iran: 4 points


mexico: 7 points
portugal: 6 points
iran: 4 points

so basically as long as we beat angola, and we tie mexico and have better goal difference than them and portugal and mexico dont tie eachother, and mexico doesnt beat portugal we are in.

if iran gets 0-2 points i will be unsatisfied.
if iran gets 3 points but plays good against mexico and portugal i will be happy.
if iran gets 4 points i will be really happy.
if iran makes it to round of 16 i will be really really happy.

[The-Red]

ya all the above is possible, but getting a single point from our first 2 games will be very very difficult, and beating angola in itself never easy.

[186forever]

4 points for Iran is very much realistic and that s the one I m aiming for also....but goal differential is somehting I m worried about specially with the type of coach we have and his causiousness

[The-Red]

4 points for Iran is very much realistic and that s the one I m aiming for also....but goal differential is somehting I m worried about specially with the type of coach we have and his causiousness

186 jan I don't want to sound negative but can you please tell me which team do you think is going to hand out to us 1 point and lose 2 themselves? among MX and Por that is?
Trust me these 2 are both quality (u r well aware of that fact yourself as you have a good knowldge on world football) teams that in particular this year are in the WC to prove a point, after years of under achieveing, specially POR, I must say I will be extremly happy with 4 pts even if we don't advance, but for some reason I see it hard to get...!
Think of it this way, Iran is getting ready to play a team such as UAE or Qatar in a major tournament in a netural ground, this is pretty much the difference between us and the other two, I am not really trying to compare anything to say this is the difference of the levels, but realistically MEX and POR are not looking to share points with us, both want the 3 pts from us and angola and may tie among themselves on the last day.
I sound very negative, I know, but as you know I will be there for Iran's games and maybe in a way I am trying to lower my expectations!!!
Good luck to our lions.

[RaginG Inferno]

I believe we should go for 3 points in every match. We shouldn't be intimidated by big names, look at Turkey in '02. First match against Brazil, and in the Semis, but they gave Brazil perhaps the biggest defensive workout since Brazil vs France in '98.

Self belief is imperative.

[BehzadB]

Ok guys, I think anticipation is getting to us now. (mainly because we are not playing any frienldies)


But Football is a game of a round ball and wide goal. (toop gerdo darvazeh goshad). That's how we got here anyways. And That's why we didn't get here the last time(2002).

what I mean is this:
It would not surprise me if we loose all three games (with high scores).
It would not shock me if we beat mexico , tie portugal and loose to Angola.
It would not shock me if we beat Mexico and Angola and tie portugal.
It would be a shocker if we beat Portugal, Mexico and Angola.

It's football. Can I see our team beat Mexico and Tie Portugal? NO I DON"T. But it is possible!!! We just have to wait and see!! Waiting is a hard thing to do, specially for us Iranians. We hate to wait.

To me the most important thing is: We have to give our best guys the chance to do the best they can. That's ALL!

Just think about: What if Iran played Three GREAT games and lost each game 1-0? I say so be it, as long as our boys do the best they can. (our coaches too!!)

when is June/11th coming?

[186forever]

186 jan I don't want to sound negative but can you please tell me which team do you think is going to hand out to us 1 point and lose 2 themselves? among MX and Por that is?
Trust me these 2 are both quality (u r well aware of that fact yourself as you have a good knowldge on world football) teams that in particular this year are in the WC to prove a point, after years of under achieveing, specially POR, I must say I will be extremly happy with 4 pts even if we don't advance, but for some reason I see it hard to get...!
Think of it this way, Iran is getting ready to play a team such as UAE or Qatar in a major tournament in a netural ground, this is pretty much the difference between us and the other two, I am not really trying to compare anything to say this is the difference of the levels, but realistically MEX and POR are not looking to share points with us, both want the 3 pts from us and angola and may tie among themselves on the last day.
I sound very negative, I know, but as you know I will be there for Iran's games and maybe in a way I am trying to lower my expectations!!!
Good luck to our lions.

Armin jan I meant 4 points after 3 matches
of course the odds are two losses for Iran against Mexico and Portugal...but lets face it...
u remember at my house we were watching USA and Mexico...ok sure USA had a good team that year but did u really believe that they can beat mexico 2-0??? I mean a draw or 1-0 ok but 2-0 and out play them?
so u see, mexico is very capable of beating any team and they always have been giving a hard time to superpowers just like what they did to ur germany in 98, but at the same time they are very much beatable...I think it is possible to get a 1-1 draw out of them....I mean the likes of Hashemian and Karimi can break a defense like Mexico and I do realize that our defense and goal keeper are shaky but a DRAW with Mexico is POSSIBLE...only if the Iran that faced Germany in AZADI shows up
so I believe that Iran can draw with mexico and beat Angola..

[Doctor DOOM]

with an inferior coach, and even more inferior staff , ALL we have left to rely on is our usual "plan B" :
players' GHEYRAT !!

when brains and intellect is missing so miserabely in our coaching bench, GHEYRAT is the ONLY thing that can save us from humiliation.

magar inke players like daei, kia, VH, karimi, .... get gheyrati and save the team ( as usual ).
coz so far it's been these players saving the incompetent coach's arse time and time again ..... every single game.
lets hope they pull it off for TM fans and Iran at the WC too.



now, when we talk about gheyrat, most of the time, all logic and calculations are thrown out the window. ( havent we seen that happen a few times? 6-2 against korea , for an example )

who knows...... with a bit of luck and a truck load of gheyrat ... we may just be able to pull off a win in our first game ( a surprise blow, catching mex off gaurd and complacent ) or against portugal ( having a bad day, which they are immensely prone to have as per history ).

so we may be able to overcome such impediments and obstacles such as mexico or portugal or branko's defective system or illogical substitutions or .... and get 3 points from any of these 2 games !

khoda koneh .

[faraz]

Right Peyman...

It is Gheyrat, and Gheyrat alone that has brought us to the WC
Because Gheyrat made those critical substitutions in the Qatar match to propel us to the next round...

Gheyrat kept Karimi in the game when everyone was screaming for him to be substituted, and what happens? Karimi pops in a beautiful left-footed cross, and VH with the header

Gheyrat won us the game against Bahrain, where Branko specifically told the boys to attack at the very beginning of each half hoping to catch Bahrain off gaurd, and what happens? We hit the post in the opening minutes of the 1st half, and score early in the 2nd.

Gheyrat brought Zandi to the team, and begged for Hashemian's presence (although other factors do come into play - I can understand that, but without Branko's persistance, we would not have 2 classy players)

Gheyrat has brought youngsters such as Kaebi into the team - he is truly our future and star.

Gheyrat has made us jump to such a respectable ranking, beat Costa Rica, beat Togo, beat...

Gheyrat made us go through WC qualifying conceding 3 goals in 6 games (and we are supposed to be weak defensively), as opposed to 2002, where we conceded that same 3 to a weaker Bahrain side.

The way you describe, it seems Gheyrat has done all the work!

Why even hire a coach??

[Doctor DOOM]

when a team has shown almost nothing in terms of cohesion, teamwork or team tactics ( and whatever they have achieved was against teams quarter their level ) ... then it is safe to say all those instances were borne out of individual brilliance and skills rather than a coach's mind.

I can pick on each and every point brought up here and explain why .... but then again, every single point has been discussed many times over.
and I seriously dont have the time , nor inclination to repeat them.

conclusion and judgment is left to the reader and his/her capacity in understanding football and its mechanics.... and I know different ppl have different capacities, expectations, standards, ... .

so , I agree with the last sentence ..... in a different way.
why hire a coach?

I agree, if the coach cannot show the capability to sustain the progress, then not wasting our money is better than staying with a person who is bereft of ideas and has clearly run out of steam...... long long time ago.


I say we SHOULD hire a PROPER coach.
but a coach who is capable.
a coach who is able to effect and SUSTAIN progress.
a coach who is NOT limited in mind and capacity.
a coach who is progressive at all times.
a coach who doesnt run out of ideas exactly when we need him to be at his best !
a coach ...... etc.
you all can fill in the blanks.


--------------------

and clearly, faraz jan, you have not understood why some of us are talking about gheyrat .... as it pertains to the "performance" of the team at the games.
not about who brought whom ... which btw, has been clarified by many ppl that ANYONE else would have done the same thing.

a clear example is VH, HIMSELF saying it was HIS own personal decision AND at NOBODY ELSE'S behest.
but somehow branko supporters want to live in their dellusional reality where all and sundrey is the blessing of branko.
heh! so be it.
each person creates his own reality at times of difficulty.... even when stark reality has been exposed again and again !

you can believe what you "want" to beleive.
me?
I'd rather beleive what VH , himself, has said.

[Paradigm]

I say let's just go after Portugal and beat them, just like Greece did. Who do you think they are? I see many portuguese here in the USA and talk to them. None of them are half as smart as we are. Don't be afraid!

[Nokhodi]

To me the Portugal match is not important. The 1st and 3rd matches are the most important, although that doesn't mean TM should go into the 2nd match with it's head down.
My most positive and realistic prediction is that we tie Mexico, lose to Portugal and beat Angola, and then advance on goal difference, as the 2nd team.
Another situation which I am afraid of though is if by some stroke of luck, TM's destiny ends up being in it's own hands and it has to beat Angola to advance. I am afraid TM might take them lightly and you never know what these African teams might do. They could defeat us if we are not careful.

[zzgloo]

It is do or die for us,in the game with mexico........it may not be everything, but it is to me.....if we do good with them,everything will roll, if not, everything will collapse.

[Doctor DOOM]

It is do or die for us,in the game with mexico........it may not be everything, but it is to me.....if we do good with them,everything will roll, if not, everything will collapse.

I agree zz jan.

having only 3 games to make or break us, leaves not much room for pu$sy-footing, complacency and dilly-dallying.

if we are to make something out of ourselves in this WC, we MUST give our best shot , at our maximum possible levels from the frist minute of mexico game.... which automatically sets the trend for the rest of our campaign.


will we do this?

or will we go in with an attitude of restricting the damage and harm done to us? ... and to quote dadkan , "have an honorable campaign" ( in other words, with least number of goals conceded and avoiding the KSA-like debacle !! )

a trend we have seen in team formation, player selection, tactics ( whatever miniscule tactics we've shown so far ), choices of substitutions, ..... etc.

[Paradigm]

You really think we can't beat Portugal?

Come on folks