Analysis of game orders

[gol_kuchik]

Part of planning a successful world cup strategy is to take into account the order
of plays.

Iran-Mexico
Por-Angola
Mex-Ang
Por-Iran
Por-Mex
Iran-Angola

With the last two games starting at exactly same time the rest are all sequentail.
What will be our opponents strategy? Both Portugal and Mexico will want to come
to their last game knowing they are assured of a next round ticket with least effort
for the last game. That obviously means maximum points from the first two games
and an offensive startegy. Since our first game is against Mexico, the question becomes,
Knowing Mexicos intention to come up with a W against Iran, what should our game
plan be?

They could opt two possible approach:

1-First half wait and see (slow game)
2-Second half all out attack

or
1-Put pressure very early on to score early
2-After scoring one, take a defensive posture with eye on counter attack

The most sensible approach for us, is to play an all out defensive game
to frustrate them. In a game arranged to defend, we can focus our attention on counter
attacks and set pieces but rest assured every minute that passes in second half if the
game is a draw by then, will put more pressure on Mexican players than us.

Now let's assume we pulled a 0-0 draw with Mexico and Portugal has won against Angola. In that case, Port will want to insure a win against Iran again and they will have the same desire as Mexico, as they don't want a draw with Iran, because that will
make their last game more important than they want. Again, this shows the soundness
of an effective game plan around defence rather than an offensive style of play.

So let's again assume we could pull a 0-0 draw with Portugal, now we have a final game
with 2 points in hands while our opponents (Mexico and Portugal) each have 4 points but
have to face each other (I assume they both beat Angola).

Here's when we could go all out to take the win for a qualification, which will be
mathematically ours if we take 2 draws in our first two games and a win the last game.

The reason this is important is, if we start focusing our attention on a defensive
strategy and game plan, trying to identify and cover the top scorers of
Mexico (even have double coverage on players like Borgetii) it will most likely give us
a much better result than an all out offensive game which can work against us. In
addition, our defensive coverage in 4-2-3-1 or even 4-4-2 is just weak because our
defenders are just not world class and a scheme which is based on team defence
may help us much better.

This approach will not make for the "beautiful" or sexy football people want but is the
most rational given our TM overall weakness and talent and our opponents.

[smanhoobi]

Nice analysis.

May I just add an important and yet a self opinion on this matter.

If one looks at the games that Iran has played and showed bad results, it would not be a matter of science to know that scoring against Iran early in the game is the key factor if one thinks of an easy victory.

So , I can assure you from now, that no matter what is NEEDED, all teams that are capable, will start the game against Iran like a THUNDER STORM. There is no question about this.

This is a tactic that all teams who think that they are superior in terms of football in comparison to their opponent would apply. However, against Iran, it is so obvious that it works. Wait and see game against Iran is dangerous. You dont give the opponent, who in many terms plays their heart rather than anything else, to take ANY psychological edge over you from the first second of the game on.

So, no matter what, Mexico and Portugal will come all out attack and press us like hell from the very first second. I am absolutely positive about this opinion of mine.

Thanks

[gol_kuchik]

Nice analysis.

So , I can assure you from now, that no matter what is NEEDED, all teams that are capable, will start the game against Iran like a THUNDER STORM. There is no question about this.

I agree with that completely. I had to cover various possibilities, but I too, think these
team come to the field to try and score as early as possible. The example of S.Korea
which I am sure they have reviewed tells them that for sure. Factoring in the inexperience
of some of our defenders in a WC atmosphere, that will most likely be their approach.

Which means the main focus must be on strong defence, well planned marking and
coverage of all potential threats.

[186forever]

Nice analysi
What you came up with is realistic but more towards a dream come true scenario rather than a realistic outcome. If we manage to only get a draw against Mexico or Portugal, I think we have done a great job and this way, in our last game, as you mentioned, we will go all attack and score as many goals as possible to get the edge on goal difference.

[Hajagha]

Nice analysis but:

We have 3 games in our hands to show the world who we are. Otherwise, such an analysis was effective in WCQ and brought the excuse of poor performances saying "result is important".

Imagine, this strategy doesn't work, we should go back home wishing "we had to play our game".

WC is the place to buy respect, and respect omes with performance rather than result.

Cheers

[zereshk-ali]

Nice analysis but:
We have 3 games in our hands to show the world who we are. Otherwise, such an analysis was effective in WCQ and brought the excuse of poor performances saying "result is important".
Imagine, this strategy doesn't work, we should go back home wishing "we had to play our game".
WC is the place to buy respect, and respect omes with performance rather than result.
Cheers

I second this.

Also, since I don't believe we have a good chance of frustrating both Mexico and Portugal with a defensive gameplan (I just don't trust our defence that much), I believe our best chance of qualification might just be a more positive approach. If in the first game we can catch the Mexicans off guard with an aggressive and positive game then we are in the driving seat.

I'm not talking about all out attack but a similar game to the one we played in the first half against the U.S. in '98. Get Karimi, Mahdavikia, Zandi and Nekounam on the ball, let them try and control possession. If we take the game to them for a while and knock their confidence then we have a better chance than sitting back and waiting for the almost inevitable goal, and if we do concede we're in trouble.

If we do score and get the win then great, we carry on the tournament with confidence. If we take the lead and then draw, or even lose, then this will also keep the Portuguese guessing as to our game plan (instead of having them camped in our half knowing that if we were negative against Mexico we will do the same against them). It will also give us the confidence that we can compete with the big teams, rather than merely trying to contain them.

[gol_kuchik]

I second this.

I'm not talking about all out attack but a similar game to the one we played in the first half against the U.S. in '98. Get Karimi, Mahdavikia, Zandi and Nekounam on the ball, let them try and control possession. If we take the game to them for a while and knock their confidence then we have a better chance than sitting back and waiting for the almost inevitable goal, and if we do concede we're in trouble.

Take what to them? Did you watch Japan-Mexico confed cup game? Japan took it to
them, or at least tried. Japan started a fast pace game and they even scored first! However
you can not out run a team that you know to be better than you in running.

Mexico's strength is their energizer bunny, keep on running approach to the game. So
we can not beat them at their own game. They are just faster and can out run us.

Part of putting a "good show" as we all like to do in WC is not to embarass ourselves.
If we lose to Mexico badly, Portugals hand against us will be more open not tighter. Because in that case they will know we will come for getting result and will have
easier time not harder to adjust. In fact if we could take a draw with good defence first game, one can
argue Portugal would have much more to guess than if we had a offensive game plan and a loss.

[Doctor DOOM]

playing a defensive game.
( and plz dont mistake it with a balanced game. we are talking about bringing and bunching our players and crowding our own half, thus allowing even MORE attackers from the opponents )

how many teams play that?

if we look, we'd see teams that play with such tactics are extremely SOLID in their defense.
they have great and top class defenders, which gives their team a cushion and confidence that they are capable of handling WHATEVER is thrown at them.
also, the rest of the team is very proficient in defensive strategy, and partake in it from the forward position.

and since this is not a league with 40 games, and we'll have only 3 games to decide our fate, it is SAFE to assume, such a team shd have plenty of fast, pacy and highly accurate forwards ( or spot kick specialists ) who would not watse the RARE and FEW chances they get to score.





now, is our team such a team?

our team ( and defense line ) that is UNABLE to repel korea's U-23 and inexperienced players?
or macedonia's B side players
or japan's B side
or QPR's third rate second division players
or .....

seriously?

even when we put the names of these asian and third rate european players in one hand, and in the other, names like borgetti, figo, nunez, maniche,.... ?

when we shake like a leaf when a bahraini crosses the ball into our 18, becoz mirza has NOT been told how to approach crosses ( even though we have had TWO GK coaches for 4 yrs now ) , or when we see balls bounce around in our 18 4-5 times, with none of our defenders getting to touch it, .... how are we going to defend against top class strikers ?

if QPR game was an embarrassment, then if we play defensive and pull back into our shell, against mexico and portugal, we'll be bombarded with balls !!

try imagining QPR's 3 goals, ocurring every 5 minutes !!!

[zereshk-ali]

Take what to them? Did you watch Japan-Mexico confed cup game? Japan took it to
them, or at least tried. Japan started a fast pace game and they even scored first! However
you can not out run a team that you know to be better than you in running.

Mexico's strength is their energizer bunny, keep on running approach to the game. So
we can not beat them at their own game. They are just faster and can out run us.

Part of putting a "good show" as we all like to do in WC is not to embarass ourselves.
If we lose to Mexico badly, Portugals hand against us will be more open not tighter. Because in that case they will know we will come for getting result and will have
easier time not harder to adjust. In fact if we could take a draw with good defence first game, one can
argue Portugal would have much more to guess than if we had a offensive game plan and a loss.

I never suggested trying to outrun them. In fact I believe that the best thing you can do to a team that has more stamina is to keep the ball. It is much more energy sapping to chase the ball and close down players than to have possession and let the ball do the work.

Sitting back is inviting the inevitable and once we do concede (which I'm almost certain we would if we sat back for the whole game) then it becomes even more impossible to catch a team, that as you say, can out run us.

If we don't have the stamina to take the game to them for the opening 20 or 30 minutes, as you suggest, then we may as well not bother turning up to the world cup because we don't have a hope!

[zereshk-ali]

Take what to them? Did you watch Japan-Mexico confed cup game? Japan took it to
them, or at least tried. Japan started a fast pace game and they even scored first! However
you can not out run a team that you know to be better than you in running.

Mexico's strength is their energizer bunny, keep on running approach to the game. So
we can not beat them at their own game. They are just faster and can out run us.

Part of putting a "good show" as we all like to do in WC is not to embarass ourselves.
If we lose to Mexico badly, Portugals hand against us will be more open not tighter. Because in that case they will know we will come for getting result and will have
easier time not harder to adjust. In fact if we could take a draw with good defence first game, one can
argue Portugal would have much more to guess than if we had a offensive game plan and a loss.

Just out of interest, if you're advocating sitting back and frustrating the opposition for the entire first two games then would it not be more prudent to line up with a different midfield than:

Hashemian---Karimi---Mahdavikia
----Zandi---Nekounam----

and perhaps go with something more likely to frustrate the opposition, similar to this:

------------------Karimi-------------------
---Kavianpour---Nekounam---Alaavi---Mahdavikia-----

...with Karimi and MK supporting a lone striker, and the other three forming a barrier in central midfield....

[gol_kuchik]

Just out of interest, if you're advocating sitting back and frustrating the opposition for the entire first two games then would it not be more prudent to line up with a different midfield than:
Hashemian---Karimi---Mahdavikia
----Zandi---Nekounam----
and perhaps go with something more likely to frustrate the opposition, similar to this:
------------------Karimi-------------------
---Kavianpour---Nekounam---Alaavi---Mahdavikia-----
...with Karimi and MK supporting a lone striker, and the other three forming a barrier in central midfield....

As a matter of fact I do favor the type of formation you suggest, with the likes of Mehdi
and Alavi in particular in the mid/back, whether we use Hamed or not that's a different
issue. Let's go back to our game, first one against erland. Due to Karimis inexperience
he could not capitalize, but he had 3 distinct chances where a world class forward would
have scored, but this time around, players like him and may be even Arash could really
help in this type of formation.

I favor strong backs and if some of our forwards, as of late both Vaheed
and Ali Agha are just standing up front, we can do with just one of them, or just
have one come in late in the game.

At anyrate, the focus is this: It is very hard to coach offense, where as creating a
sensible defence is completely a coachable task, provided it is viewed as top priority and
a strategy to go forward. (particularly since our opponets and their methods are all known).
As it happens, Branko has the bulk of the defence at his disposal, and hopefully many
tapes to view of our opponents for all sorts of game plans to neutralize our opponents
offence between now and WC, and Rahman can easily be plugged in later.

p.s Nosrati will definitely be in my defensive formation.

[zereshk-ali]

.
I favor strong backs and if some of our forwards, as of late both Vaheed
and Ali Agha are just standing up front, we can do with just one of them, or just
have one come in late in the game.

This is true, particularly if you are looking to frustrate.

I wonder if Branko would dare sacrifice one of them though and not stick to playing Vahid out left.