How many points to get through?

[Kavian]

The turning point in the future games is the Nov 15, 2016 Korea vs. Uzbekistan game. If the game results in a tie, both teams will remain in contention for the top two places. If one of them win, the loser will suffer a major dent in their hopes of achieving one of the top two spots. A situation which would serves us good, specially if Uzbekistan wins away and Korea remains with 7 points after 5 games. For us the top spot in the qualifying table will be nailed down, if we get the maximum 9 points from the home/away against Syria, and home against China and 1 win and 2 ties or 2 wins and a loss from the three games away against Qatar and Korea and home against Uzbekistan. .... all of that of course is with the assumption that Qatar doesn't turn into Uruguay or Korea all of sudden become the Korea of WC 2002. ......so until such time, let's not get too comfortable. The next round of group games are very curicial. .

[NFL]

Provided we beat Syria in the next match as expected:

If Uzbekistan beat Korea in the next match, our direct qualification is pretty much guaranteed because Korea need to win all their remaining 5 matches and we have to drop 6 points for them to catch up with us. I'd say that's pretty much an impossible scenario.

If Uzbekistan tie Korea, Korea will still need to win all their matches and we need to drop 6 points for them to go ahead of us on points. Korea winning all their matches means Uzbekistan will lose another match so they'd have to have a 100% record in their remaining matches and we'd still have to drop at least 6 points for them to catch up. Again, that's pretty much an impossible scenario.

If Korea beat Uzbekistan, then we'll have both of them chasing us with 3 and 4 points behind but they can't both have a 100% win ratio going forward (since they still have to play each other one more time). So again, we'd have to drop at least 6 points and everything has to go perfectly for them for us not to qualify direct.

In short, the win yesterday was a HUGE step toward direct qualification and beating Syria in the next match would mean we will definitely qualify with 23 points and I'd say 95% with even 22 points (that's 3 ties or 2 losses going forward).

Let's also keep in mind, that our performance in the 2nd half of the games was MUCH better in 2014 than our performance in the 1st half, because of lack of friendlies and the team gelling together. So, unless there's an absolute melt-down of some kind (social, political, heaven forbid CQ getting sick or something), I can't see us dropping even 4 points after the Syria match, let alone 5 or 6.

I suppose everything is possible, but I have to believe that South Korea is going to show up and beat the Uzbeks in Tashkand.
South Koreas were not their usual self and they are a very good team. Good teams don't play so poorly two games in a row.

[NFL]

Every game is important and every game counts the same. We can not let up now. Syria should be taken as seriously as South Korea. Any points lost to Syria will come back to haunt us later on. this is the stage of the tournament when we must keep the pressure on our opponent and focus even more and make sure we get max points against teams we are SUPPOSED to defeat. Historically this has been a tough spot for us. Let's see how this team reacts!

[bahbah]

i think we can rely on the statistics
i would say 18+ points would be enough

statistics: http://www.persianfootball.com/forum...need-18-Ponits

[ehsan singapore]

we beat syria, and we are 13 points, and 85% there, the good thing will be , we dont need to panick till the later time like march and june , we can relax and focus on games, i think even 19 and we can qualify, maybe as early as march 27 when we play china at home we can be in russia

[khosro]

I suppose everything is possible, but I have to believe that South Korea is going to show up and beat the Uzbeks in Tashkand.
South Koreas were not their usual self and they are a very good team. Good teams don't play so poorly two games in a row.

When were they last their usual selves?

They almost threw the game away against China and had to come back from behind against Qatar at home.

That being said I agree that they can only get better.

As has been said we've played both Korea and Uzbekistan. Neither of them have played each other. Best case on side wins both or they draw both matches. But even if they share the spoils (3 points each) we just need to maintain parity.

This campaign is far from over. I think there will be a few more twists and I think the Arabs will have a say in the outcome.

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[Nokhodi]

Every game is important and every game counts the same. We can not let up now. Syria should be taken as seriously as South Korea. Any points lost to Syria will come back to haunt us later on. this is the stage of the tournament when we must keep the pressure on our opponent and focus even more and make sure we get max points against teams we are SUPPOSED to defeat. Historically this has been a tough spot for us. Let's see how this team reacts!

Agree 100%.
I really hope the friendly in Thailand gets out any of the complacency plus acclimatizes the team to the humid conditions.

[ehsan singapore]

Agree 100%.
I really hope the friendly in Thailand gets out any of the complacency plus acclimatizes the team to the humid conditions.

is a excellent preperation, can gain a few objectives
1. play in humid weather
2. test our defensive skills and improve it
3. make our forwards more sharp
4. playing thailand away is hard, they are fast team at home, i remmber in 2002 wcq we struggled big time against them in bangkok

[ehsan singapore]

Provided we beat Syria in the next match as expected:

If Uzbekistan beat Korea in the next match, our direct qualification is pretty much guaranteed because Korea need to win all their remaining 5 matches and we have to drop 6 points for them to catch up with us. I'd say that's pretty much an impossible scenario.

If Uzbekistan tie Korea, Korea will still need to win all their matches and we need to drop 6 points for them to go ahead of us on points. Korea winning all their matches means Uzbekistan will lose another match so they'd have to have a 100% record in their remaining matches and we'd still have to drop at least 6 points for them to catch up. Again, that's pretty much an impossible scenario.

If Korea beat Uzbekistan, then we'll have both of them chasing us with 3 and 4 points behind but they can't both have a 100% win ratio going forward (since they still have to play each other one more time). So again, we'd have to drop at least 6 points and everything has to go perfectly for them for us not to qualify direct.

In short, the win yesterday was a HUGE step toward direct qualification and beating Syria in the next match would mean we will definitely qualify with 23 points and I'd say 95% with even 22 points (that's 3 ties or 2 losses going forward).

Let's also keep in mind, that our performance in the 2nd half of the games was MUCH better in 2014 than our performance in the 1st half, because of lack of friendlies and the team gelling together. So, unless there's an absolute melt-down of some kind (social, political, heaven forbid CQ getting sick or something), I can't see us dropping even 4 points after the Syria match, let alone 5 or 6.

that is true i would say the math against china, we can qualify even then if all games go for us, if we win next 3, 19 can be almost there, 19 would be min 3rd place and even top 2 depending on uzbekistan and korea results, the key is syria game

[ehsan singapore]

23 points, guaranteed 2nd place.

22 points, we can qualify with better goal difference than 3rd place team.

Here's why:

All teams have 6 games left. So if any team wins all their games, they can add another 18 points to their total. However, there are 2 games between Korea and Uzbs left. The outcomes of those games will have a major impact on how many points we need to qualify as one of the top 2 teams. Finishing second is all we need. Currently:
Iran has 10 points
Uzbaks have 9 points
Korea has 7 points

Possible outcomes of games between Korea and Uzbaks:

1. Korea wins both: Uzbs can get maximum of 12 more points ==> They get 21 points. We need 22 points to qualify on points OR 21 with better goal diff that Uzbs.

2. Uzbs win both: Korea can get maximum of 12 more points ==> They get 19 points. We need 20 points to qualify on points or 19 with better goal diff than Korea.

3. Korea and Uzbs each win one: Korea can get maximum of 15 more points ==> They get 22 pints. We need 23 to qualify on points or 22 with better goal diff than Korea.

4. Uzbs win one and tie one: Korea can get maximum of 13 more points ==> They get 20 points. We need 21 to qualify on points or 20 with better goal diff than Korea.

5. Korea wins one and ties one: Uzbs can get maximum of 13 more points ==> They get 22 points. We need 23 to qualify on points or 22 with better goal diff than Uzbs.

6. Korea and Uzbs tie both: Korea can get maximum of 14 more points ==> They get 21 points. We need 22 to qualify on points or 21 with better goal diff than Korea.

Other teams cannot get to 23 points.

So we need max of 13 more points to qualify or 12 with better goal difference (see 3 and 5 above). Most likely we can qualify with 21 or even 20 points.

your right but we can qualify with less points also, your assuming korea and uzbekistan will win all thier remaining games against other teams, what if uzbekistan lose to syria or china, or korea lose to qatar, then even 18,19 can make us qualify, hence there is a possiblity we can qualify as early as march 27, if we win the next 3

[Abedzadeh]

i remmber in 2002 wcq we struggled big time against them in bangkok

We were actually really lucky not to loose that match; they had numerous chances, and an excellent opportunity at the end that they should have put away. We couldn't get anything going offensively.

[NFL]

It's too early to tell how things go. Too many variables to be certain of anything. I am more interested in what our team does not what others do to each other. Of course what others do can make the job easier or more difficult for us. But all WE have and can do is do our best to win the next game. that's all. and god willing with the poise and composure I have lately noticed from our team, this team has finally found a rhythm, albeit still pretty rusty when going on offense. but defensively, they have found their game. no doubt about it. that's bad news for our opponents. Carlos is not going to let his players let up. he is just not going to allow that. and that's exactly why we pay him the money that we do.

Last WCQ tournament, it's just turned out that our away game against South Korea was the most crucial game that demanded a magical game for us to advance. and we did!! thinking that we have already advanced or that we have a 93% chance of advancing may put us in a similar situation again this time around and that is the one thing that I don't want to see. We can not go to south Korea "needing" that game to advance. that game has to be an irrelevant game for us. how do we do that? how about we start by beating Syria first!!!

I remember 2002 WCQ when all was rosy and we thought we are gonna get there so easy. gathered the early points and then everything fell apart. we couldn't beat Thailand a team that KSA beat up on 4-1, away!!!!!!!

[NFL]

When were they last their usual selves?

I haven't watched their games, just highlights. I remember them from the world cup and from last WCQ. they are a far better team than what they displayed yesterday.
My gut feeling tells me South Korea is not done.

[DireStraits]

If we win next game against Syria we have 13 points and we only need 7-9 points to qualify. That is 3 wins in 5 games. The most dificult games are in Qatar and south Korea. Qataris do what ever to stop us. UZ and china will come after
a tie since they now we are too good. So it can go wrong. It will be dificult to score against teams that play ultra deffensive.

[ehsan singapore]

If we win next game against Syria we have 13 points and we only need 7-9 points to qualify. That is 3 wins in 5 games. The most dificult games are in Qatar and south Korea. Qataris do what ever to stop us. UZ and china will come after
a tie since they now we are too good. So it can go wrong. It will be dificult to score against teams that play ultra deffensive.

you maybe right but playing in azadi is hard