2022 Qualifiers - Other Games Thread (AFC & beyond)

[Nokhodi]

Who do we want to qualify from Path A and B?

[milad_b]

Who do we want to qualify from Path A and B?

any teams other than wales and sweden

So I'll be happy with scotland and poland qualifying. But i think Czech will make it and possibly wales.

so my bet is on Wales , Czech , Italy . Hopefully wales don't make it tho

[Ghermez Agha]

Who do we want to qualify from Path A and B?

Ukraine from A and Czech from B

[Azeem98]

These are probably the last interesting match days in WCQs. With the expansion next time each confederation has enough spots for its big teams to qualify, Asia has 8 Africa 9 wooh. If they still don't then don't deserve it either.

[diz]

These are probably the last interesting match days in WCQs. With the expansion next time each confederation has enough spots for its big teams to qualify, Asia has 8 Africa 9 wooh. If they still don't then don't deserve it either.

After the expansion, the first round of future WCs will become the de facto "qualifiers".

[milad_b]

Europe gets 13.5 slots (14 ). And people are still complaining ??? If the big teams mess up and don't qualify then its on them .

If fifa proceed to new format (which is totaly stupid) then qualifying to world cup won't be a big deal anymore! Advancing from the group to next stages (round of 16) will be considered a big thing .

The new format has lots problems which fifa needs to consider! For example too any fans/tourists will enter the hosting country! Can the hosting country withstand that many visitors! Most european countries cant cope with that!

[oracle]

Europe gets 13.5 slots (14 ). And people are still complaining ??? If the big teams mess up and don't qualify then its on them .

If fifa proceed to new format (which is totaly stupid) then qualifying to world cup won't be a big deal anymore! Advancing from the group to next stages (round of 16) will be considered a big thing .

The new format has lots problems which fifa needs to consider! For example too any fans/tourists will enter the hosting country! Can the hosting country withstand that many visitors! Most european countries cant cope with that!

in 2026
3 countries will co host
usa canada and mexico
SO there is no issue of too many tourists in one nation..
and days of one sole counrty host is finish imo
as 48teams wc will be co hosted between 2 to 3 countries.

[peiman92]

Europe gets 13.5 slots (14 ). And people are still complaining ??? If the big teams mess up and don't qualify then its on them .

If fifa proceed to new format (which is totaly stupid) then qualifying to world cup won't be a big deal anymore! Advancing from the group to next stages (round of 16) will be considered a big thing .

The new format has lots problems which fifa needs to consider! For example too any fans/tourists will enter the hosting country! Can the hosting country withstand that many visitors! Most european countries cant cope with that!

One big problem IMO is the group-stage, which will be 16 groups of 3 teams. For many countries it will be a wait of 4 years to only play 2 games. Seriously?
With bad luck a team could be eliminated after 1 game.

[Malkay]

Hmmm... seems I got ahead of myself yesterday as we're still a 98% chance of ending up in pot 3 even after yesterday's playoff draws.

For any of you interested in the statistical side of this the content provider of this website provides FIFA ranking predictions and World Cup qualifying and seeding probabilities by running simulations of upcoming games based on Elo win expectancy (essential the rating system used in chess)

http://www.football-rankings.info/20...ns-27.html?m=1

Scroll down to the very bottom of the post under the heading "pots for the final draw". It shows you 4 tranches of teams who have qualified or are still in with a chance (column 1) followed by columns that show the likelihood of which seeding pot they will end up in.

I suspect the model has us losing to SK away but it looks like even if we win every game we still need snookers in the form of 1) no teams below us overtaking us in the ranking (which is highly possible) and 2) Italy and Portugal not to qualify from their path (highly unlikely) as well as either one or both of USA and Mexico not qualifying or Colombia, Uruguay, Wales, Sweden, Senegal, Algeria and Morocco all not qualifying... which strangely has a better chance of happening. Cross your fingers and toes in the next couple of months.

[Ab-Gosht]

Hmmm... seems I got ahead of myself yesterday as we're still a 98% chance of ending up in pot 3 even after yesterday's playoff draws.

For any of you interested in the statistical side of this the content provider of this website provides FIFA ranking predictions and World Cup qualifying and seeding probabilities by running simulations of upcoming games based on Elo win expectancy (essential the rating system used in chess)

http://www.football-rankings.info/20...ns-27.html?m=1

Scroll down to the very bottom of the post under the heading "pots for the final draw". It shows you 4 tranches of teams who have qualified or are still in with a chance (column 1) followed by columns that show the likelihood of which seeding pot they will end up in.

I suspect the model has us losing to SK away but it looks like even if we win every game we still need snookers in the form of 1) no teams below us overtaking us in the ranking (which is highly possible) and 2) Italy and Portugal not to qualify from their path (highly unlikely) as well as either one or both of USA and Mexico not qualifying or Colombia, Uruguay, Wales, Sweden, Senegal, Algeria and Morocco all not qualifying... which strangely has a better chance of happening. Cross your fingers and toes in the next couple of months.

iran only needs to arrange friendly matches outside of fifa window to leapfrog all pot 3 teams and reach pot 2, its not very difficult

[Malkay]

iran only needs to arrange friendly matches outside of fifa window to leapfrog all pot 3 teams and reach pot 2, its not very difficult

Not really. The ranking system was overhauled after the last World Cup, particularly to prevent the ways that teams used to game the system regarding friendlies.

Friendlies outside the official FIFA international calendar award much less points to really be worthwhile and we're talking about a 3 month window for any such games to take place. Besides we'd only be able to arrange such games with inferior opposition (like Afghanistan) which, given that points are calculated by Elo (actual result vs expected result), we'd have to beat comfortably to not actually lose points.

As I said, we're reliant on other teams doing the business for us if we want pot 2. It's out of our hands

[Omid177]

Any chance for TM being in pot 1?

[perspolis#1]

How about we just play whoever we get in our group and bury them to advance?

Every team in a 32 team World cup has shown something to be there and we will NEVER have an easy game at the world cup. Always overprepare. Be ready for a Germany, Brazil, England group and be grateful for anything better.

I remember everyone celebrating getting Bosnia in 2014 and they cooked us, meanwhile we were upset about Spain/Portugal and we were 1 goal away from topping them.

[St_Mark]

Any chance for TM being in pot 1?

About 2 degrees Celsius of additional global warming should do it.

[Malkay]

Any chance for TM being in pot 1?

No

7 of 8 pot 1 teams already confirmed are Qatar, Brazil, Belgium, France, England, Argentina and Spain

For the last remaining place in pot 1, the chances are
Portugal 56.53%
Italy 31.25%
Mexico 6.39%
USA 5.18%
Denmark 0.65%

How about we just play whoever we get in our group and bury them to advance

Kind of a no brainer that anyone would want their team the best possible chance of a favourable draw. Why would we be so blaise about being able to avoid the likes of Germany and Netherlands by being in the same pot as them and end up playing the likes of Ecuador, Serbia and Wales (we can't be drawn against an AFC team) as well as a pot 4 team.