Korea vs. Uzbekistan - Likely Scenarios and What is Best for Us

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    Korea vs. Uzbekistan - Likely Scenarios and What is Best for Us



    I've been reading in various threads, how we should be hoping for a Korea win here, to give us an advantage when we travel to Ulsan in a couple of weeks, and to be perfectly honest, I don't think I agree with them.

    As it stands, the group shapes as:

    Korea 11 pts +6
    Uzbekistan 11 pts +2
    Iran 10 pts +1


    Let's say for argument's sake, we'll beat Lebanon 2-0. That'll give us 13 pts, and a +3 GD. Now on to Korea vs. Uzbek game [wins by one goal margin]:


    Scenario 1: KOREA WIN
    A win for Korea basically qualifies them for the World Cup. The first tie-breaker is GD, and they have a huge advantage over both Iran and Uzbekistan. This will leave Uzbekistan 2 points behind TM with them chasing us for +2 GD. This means, even if we draw in Ulsan in a couple of weeks, A simple 2-0 win for Uzbekistan against Qatar will send them to Brazil. Also, I've been reading that if Korea is already qualified, it'll make their game vs. us easier. I don't think I agree. Iran vs. Korea is one of the biggest Asian derbies. It's Der Klassiker of Asia. Korea always want to beat us regardless. 4 Years ago, they were already qualified, and when we went 1-0 up, they threw chicken and sink at us and finally got the equalizer which eliminated us. Korea will never drop their performance against us, and I prefer to face them, if they need something from the game, so the pressure and nerve could get them. Unlike Japan, Korea isn't the most calm and composed team, and could easily crumble under pressure. They were extremely close to dropping points vs. Qatar and Lebanon due to the natural pressure on them that they are EXPECTED to win those games. Same thing happened to them in Tehran when they had a player over us, and the pressure for them to take the game to us didn't work for them, and they ended up losing. I much rather face a Korea under pressure, than a Korea already relaxed, qualified, which can play with a lot more tactical freedom.
    In this scenario, Uzbekistan know it's a win or die for them vs. Qatar, and they'll go out all guns blazing.

    Table in this scenario:

    1- Korea 14pts +7
    2- Iran 13 pts +3
    3- Uzbek 11 pts +1

    Scenario 2: DRAW
    If this scenario happens, it puts immense pressure on Korea when they play us. It'll send us TOP OF THE GROUP, going into the last day, and presents Uzbekistan a chance that they'll directly qualify to the world cup, NO MATTER WHAT, if they beat Qatar. Here, a draw GUARANTEES us direct qualification. Unlike Scenario 1, when even if we drew, a big win for Uzbekistan could have sent us to play-offs. A draw here, 100% gives us that spot. I much rather we know exactly what we want, than having our ears elsewhere. If you didn't know, Korea vs. Iran , and Uzbek vs. Qatar games will be played AT THE SAME TIME. Korea will be under immense pressure to win in this case. They'll have to take the game to us, and if they don't score early, the crowd will get nervous and this pressure may end in silly mistakes. They have a knack of scoring late goals, but our defense has been fantastic in this campaign, and I am confident if we counter their early pressure, we'll have the upper hand here.

    Table in this scenario:

    1- Iran 13 pts +3
    2- Korea 12 pts +6
    3- Uzbek 12 pts +2

    Scenario 3: UZBEK WIN
    This scenario QUALIFIES Uzbekistan for the world cup. It'll make their last game meaningless, which means Korea-Iran game is a direct play-off. It'll make it a Win or die for Korea. Unlike Scenario 2, Korea can't be hoping for a favour from Qatar, so maybe even a draw will send them through. This is the worst case scenario for us, as it'll separate one team, from the rest. It kills a lot of uncertainties in the group.

    Table in this scenario:
    1- Uzbek 14 pts +3
    2- Iran 13 pts +3
    3- Korea 11 pts +5

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    I think a draw is undoubtedly the best result for us. WHY :

    1- We'll go to last day topping the group. That's a massive confidence boost.

    2- We KNOW , 100%, that no matter what, a draw QUALIFIES us for the world cup. In no other scenario, that's the case.

    3- Korea & Uzbekistan won't exactly know what they want, as their faith depend on each other's last games. Both teams will be under pressure to go out for the win in front of home fans, and it could backfire.





    Things to note: Korea vs. Uzbek game will be done before we play Lebanon. If it's a Korea win/Draw, then we must go all out to put at least 3/4 goals vs. Lebanon, so that on the last day, if it goes to GD, we'll be in advantage. Scenario 3 is the nightmare scenario.

    The only way we could lose in Ulsan, and still qualify, is through either scenarios 1 or 2. Though in second one, if we beat Lebanon with a good margin, then Uzbek will need to BEAT Qatar to beat us to second place even if we lose in Ulsan, and a draw won't be enough for them.

    Ideal results for me next tuesday ??

    Korea 0-0 Uzbekistan (Preferably a couple of red cards for both sides)

    Iran 4-0 Lebanon
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    i was gonna make this same exact thread but the site was down and you beat me to it


    this game will basically determine who will qualify.
    first off we have pretty much guaranteed a playoff place (all we need is 1 pt in the 6 we have left)

    what will be important is to score a lot of goals against lebanon, we need out GD to increase, its +1 right now while uzbeks are +2 and korea +6

    so if next week uzbeks dont win and we score a lot against lebanon, we will be in good shape
    the issue though comes in the uzbek-qatar game, it will probably be meaningless for the qataris, but we need them to take points off of the uzbeks

    however, most scenarios make it so that this will be decided on that last day

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    You will NOT be winning by 4 goals. That I can tell you. Dont be so sure you'll win either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LebaneseRevival View Post
    You will NOT be winning by 4 goals. That I can tell you. Dont be so sure you'll win either.
    Maybe 5?

    ONLY WAY WE WIN AT WC: DEJAGAH/GUCCI GO HAM: CQ OUTSMARTS THE OTHER COACH. OTHER TEAM TAKES US LIGHTLY AND WE PRESS. DAVARI SAVES EVERYTHING.

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    Quote Originally Posted by persiangodfather View Post
    Maybe 5?
    I knew you would be so one-dimensional. I'll be saving your comment for after the game

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    Quote Originally Posted by LebaneseRevival View Post
    I knew you would be so one-dimensional. I'll be saving your comment for after the game
    No I never get c0cky and i certainly wont for Iran's Soccer, but the way Lebanon plays discusts me, with your cheating, time wasting, diving and grasrolling.. its the meaning of Anti Football

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    Quote Originally Posted by persiangodfather View Post
    No I never get c0cky and i certainly wont for Iran's Soccer, but the way Lebanon plays discusts me, with your cheating, time wasting, diving and grasrolling.. its the meaning of Anti Football
    It discusts you? Or disgusts you?
    I don't understand jibberish

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    Quote Originally Posted by LebaneseRevival View Post
    It discusts you? Or disgusts you?
    I don't understand jibberish
    Lol you speak Arabic

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    Quote Originally Posted by LebaneseRevival View Post
    You will NOT be winning by 4 goals. That I can tell you. Dont be so sure you'll win either.
    Well the last time you came to Tehran we put 5 in your net. So I wouldn't be surprised.

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    Quote Originally Posted by persiangodfather View Post
    No I never get c0cky and i certainly wont for Iran's Soccer, but the way Lebanon plays discusts me, with your cheating, time wasting, diving and grasrolling.. its the meaning of Anti Football
    If Lebanon didn't grass roll so much then the ref wouldn't have gave so much extra time for Korea to score in the 97th minute

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