Iran's Group- Discussion

[CHaMiLLionaire]

Group A South Korea, Iran, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Lebanon- What are your thoughts??

Here is the full match schedule:
Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012.
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013

IMO- it is a very doable group. Iran's first game against Uzbekistan(they are missing 5 key players including AFC player of the year Djeparov due to suspension). Then we play home to Qatar which is a must win, and away to Lebanon which is also another must win. Another win vs Lebanon at home, and a draw in both the qatar and Korea game should see us through to the WC. That way the last game vs Korea will just be meaningless in order to see who will top the group.

I am very optimistic, even though its a hard group- the schedule is what makes it easy for us to qualify. The first three games are a must win for Iran- and if we take these 9 points in the first 3 games then we should be guaranteed qualification by as much as 90%.

Iran chikareshh mikonee...sooooorakh sooooorakhesh mikone!

[Martin-Reza]

Well, those must wins are worrying me a bit, wouldn't be the first time we screw them up. But basically I agree with you.

Overall I think 6 points against Lebanon, 4 points against Uzbekistan and Qatar and 2 points against South Korea should get the job done. We need to be patient this time though. Had we simply accepted the 1-1 against KSA in Tehran last time instead of thinking of winning the game late, we would have been through, so no panicking this time!

I hope we can have a friendly against Azerbaidjan, Kazakhstan or some team like that in late May to prepare for Uzbekistan. As all of the leagues will be finished by early or middle of May, we could have a full friendly match then.

[Nokhodi]

As an Iranian I've learnt to expect the worst. I can never be comfortable about any of the games and I probably have the damaged heart of a 85 year old heart attack victim because of this team.

Having said that here is what I think will happen:

Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012: Iran wins 2-1
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012 - Iran ties 1-1
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012 - Iran wins 1-0
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012 Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012. Iran ties 1-1
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013 - Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013. - Iran wins 2-0.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013 - Iran loses 2-1

13 points in total which should be more than enough.
I worry about this team and its defense particularly during the first and last 10 minutes of every game.

[KeonKish]

As an Iranian I've learnt to expect the worst. I can never be comfortable about any of the games and I probably have the damaged heart of a 85 year old heart attack victim because of this team.

Having said that here is what I think will happen:

Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012: Iran wins 2-1
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012 - Iran ties 1-1
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012 - Iran wins 1-0
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012 Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012. Iran ties 1-1
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013 - Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013. - Iran wins 2-0.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013 - Iran loses 2-1

13 points in total which should be more than enough.
I worry about this team and its defense particularly during the first and last 10 minutes of every game.

we should roll over qatars face if we have Andranik to replace P.nouri, P nouri sucks. I think we need to get out points from Uzbekistan qatar and lebanon and we should make it through if we tie with KOR

[Doctor DOOM]

Having Uzbekistan, Qatar and Lebanon in the group means short distances for our away journeys which sets us apart from our direct competition in the group, South Korea.

Not trying to pre-judge anything. But by going over the history and the quality of the teams in our group, I think Korea's advance is pretty much highest among the rest of the teams. I'm not discounting iran or uzbeks, mind you. But am just being realistic. and I'm also leaving aside some bizarre and unforeseen twists in fate. that makes uzbekistan our main challenger to get the second spot.

Given Uzbekistan’s predicament in their first game with suspension of 5 of their players who deliberately tried to get yellow cards in their group games, in one of our most crucial group games we may yet be provided a great chance to get an away win from one of the stronger teams in the group. And given our following home game and then the third game against Lebanon, it wouldn’t be too much of a wishful thinking to think we stand a very good chance to get 9 points from our first 3 games. Should this happen, this would mean 50% of the job already done.

Will Quieroz exploit the Uzbek situation and go for the kill in our first game? Or will he keep it sedate and stick to the conventional rule of “aim for winning home games and draw the away ones”? I am not sure what will be his strategy. But all I hope is that he doesn’t leave things for too late in the campaign, given our last rapid-fire 3 match-days and the ultimate game away to South Korea. Our memory is still fresh from the last World Cup 2010 qualifiers, leaving things too late, with our last game away to the very same South Korea.



this is a marvelous opportunity for us.
imagine getting more than half the points needed for direct qualification ( I think 15-16 would do it for us) out of your first 3 games.
that means the remaining 5 games to get another 6-7 points (allowing for a couple of home games wt uzbeks and lebanese)

[Hadi]

we just struggled to draw against the fourth seeded team of our group...yet we need 6 points from them to ensure qualifications (basically we need 12 from Lebanon and Qatar together and 4 from Uzbekistan). no easy task with the current quality of our football.

[maij]

I have been around far too long to know that there is no such thing as easy group in the final round of World Cup qualifiers! However , that said , this draw seems like the closest Team Melli can get , on paper , to have a moderate path to qualification to Brazil in 2014.

There are many things to consider in these matches. There are always the ever-present concerns , like our good friends already mentioned.
All those easy teams that we think will be walkovers . I worry about that a lot.
The winning mentality of the coach, who has not shown that he goes for the jugular. Will he be brave , adventurous . conservative or will be the type that always calculates "what if" scenarios?
Will there be good preparations with camps and friendly matches , or will it be the usual Iranian disorganization and missed opportunities.
Will we see some new blood given chances , or we will stick with our old and slow familiar names?
How committed Carlos Queiroz will be to his job and Iran? Do not assume that he will be with the team all the way to Brazil. There are some interesting developments going on right now in Iran's Football that might affect the future of CQ working with TM.

These are a few of the questions that determines the ultimate fate of Team Melli.

Technically speaking . Iran still has many problems in all the lines from goalkeeping and defense to the forward line. The only line that I am so comfortable with and have quite a handsome number of player ready for the job , is the midfield. The most worrying , naturally , is the defense. In order to improve the quality of the team and patch up the defenses , CQ needs to work hard and close with the team.

I have a feeling that Uzbekistan and Iran might pip Korea for the two top spots.

[zzgloo]

Salam be Hamegee....
....
It realy should n't matter who we play.......here is where QC values should come to the rescue....,supposedly a better forign coach, which I am a believer he is.......rescue not in a sense that he would do miracles and make us over achive...but only help us not to underachive....help us not to have those usual TM slump periods....those lapses we have gotten used to.....
....
QC just said after the draw,that : "" we can not relax..and preparation is the name of the game,because that is the only thing in our control "".
....
IRAN & S.Korea are favorits to advance from our group by all odds makers...,I am a firm believer,QC is the right coach...and his main job is to do what is expected of us by the odds makers, nothing more.

[zzgloo]

I agree with Paymaan's assesment of the Uzbacks low scoring offense.....as they will most probabaly have the highest number of "Ties " in the group......and to beat Uzbaks ,we need to get the most points out of the the other teams...because they will not.

[Doctor DOOM]

davoud had this little stats on uzbeks in the football forum:

Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-	Pts
I.R. IRAN	6	3	3	0	17	5	12	12
QATAR	6	2	4	0	10	5	5	10

KOREA REPUBLIC	6	4	1	1	14	4	10	13
LEBANON	6	3	1	2	10	14	-4	10

UZBEKIS'N

6

5

1

0

8

1

7

16

Largest Win:
Iran 6-0 ( vs Bahrain)
Qatar 4-0 (vs Indonesia)
South Korea 6-0 (Lebanon)
Lebanon 3-1 (vs UAE)
Uzbekistan 3-0 (vs Tajikistan)

Biggest Loss:
Iran – None
Qatar - None
South Korea 1-2 (vs Lebanon)
Lebanon 0-6 (vs South Korea)
Uzbekistan - None

for example uzbeks won 5 games in a group that had japan and kuwait in it. that makes them a tough team. especially since they allowed only 1 goal. at the same time, they scored only 8 which means they struggle to score goals and are not very effective.

or lebanon, despite qualifying has struggled to score goals (10) while letting others score against them freely (14).

qatar has the most draws (4)

and juxtaposing the above with the fact that 5 of their players are suspended, can anyone find out how many of these 5 players are their defensive players?
from the looks of it their success is more for not conceding goals than scoring them. and if some of their main defenders are suspended, then CQ has no business to keep a "safe & conservative" team for the first game which has provided us with a massive chance of getting a win in a very tough away tie.