World Cup 2018 Group Stage Simulation

[koush22]

I spent a couple hours today doing a Monte Carlo simulation to find what the best/worst world cup groups we can get are. I took the tables for each region as they stand today (from wikipedia, hopefully they were correct). I gave teams a "skill rating" variable as a function of FIFA ranking, % of max possible points attained, and normalized goal difference. The skill rating gives 50% weight to FIFA ranking and 25% each to the other two variables. Russia was given the average of all other 31 teams as a skill rating because they did not play any group games for me to consider. I simulated playoffs by comparing each team's skill rating. The final 32 teams to make it, and their skill rating are as follows:



Then I ran a simulation of 1000 draws to find the best and worst groups we could get based on my model.

Here are the 5 "hardest" (highest SR of 3 other teams) groups:
Germany
Egypt
Iran
Belgium
Opponent Total SR: 316.66

Germany
Tunisia
Iran
Belgium
Opponent Total SR: 315.25

Germany
Nigeria
Iran
Spain
Opponent Total SR: 313.75

Germany
Uruguay
Iran
Spain
Opponent Total SR: 312.97

Germany
Peru
Iran
Belgium
Opponent Total SR: 312.66

Here are the 5 "easiest" (lowest SR of 3 other teams) groups:

Columbia
Burkina Faso
Iran
Sweden
Opponent Total SR: 222.95

Russia
Burkina Faso
Iran
Sweden
Opponent Total SR: 223.89

Argentina (Surprising! but makes sense considering Argentina's qualification campaign so far)
Burkina Faso
Iran
Sweden
Opponent Total SR: 223.91

Russia
Ivory Coast
Iran
Sweden
Opponent Total SR: 224.47

Argentina
Ivory Coast
Iran
Sweden
Opponent Total SR: 224.5

Discuss what you guys think about our chances in these groups. We can also discuss surprising skill ratings!

Cheers

[pres80]

Lets hope we get Sweden, Ghoddos will rip them a new one

[persiangooner]

Thanks for making this, very interesting.
On one hand I want an easier group so we can get to the second round, but on the other hand I want TM to face multiple super tough teams like Germany and get a shock result. Imagine the world's reaction to that [emoji23]
But no matter how easy our group is, if we don't play friendlies against decent opposition we're gonna be unprepared and unready for the tournament, at least for our high expectations!


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[littlepersia17]

I will get hammered here, but I don't fancy us winning against ANY World Cup opponent.

The matter of fact is we have only won once in 12 WC matches.

Before even thinking about getting out of the group, we need to think about how we can actually win a single football match.

We can't just rely on luck goals from counter-attacks, whilst parking the autobus the whole game. We tried that last WC and it didn't work.

I don't want to hear the 'we almost got a point against Argentina' story for the next 4 years again.

CQ should play for a win in each of the 3 group games, not put all his eggs in one basket and hope we win the final game, after Ultra-defending the first two games.

[Afat11]

I will get hammered here, but I don't fancy us winning against ANY World Cup opponent.

The matter of fact is we have only won once in 12 WC matches.

Before even thinking about getting out of the group, we need to think about how we can actually win a single football match.

We can't just rely on luck goals from counter-attacks, whilst parking the autobus the whole game. We tried that last WC and it didn't work.

I don't want to hear the 'we almost got a point against Argentina' story for the next 4 years again.

CQ should play for a win in each of the 3 group games, not put all his eggs in one basket and hope we win the final game, after Ultra-defending the first two games.

CQ's current squad is incomparable to any previous TM squad. In previous generations, we never had a group of young talented players who grew up and matured in a single national team coach's system.

This team is unique, and they are a well-oiled machine. The previous team was a patchwork quilt of different pieces that were put together and were fairly old and inexperienced on international level.

Sardar is a player that despite being immature in career choices is a player that can single-handedly change a game. We have seen that. He scores braces against a team like Montenegro who is challenging in tough UEFA WCQ, scores with an ultra-defensive Rostov squad against Bayern and Atletico, two amazing defensive teams.

The rest of our squad is capable of shocking giants. TM 1998, 2006, 2014 have no bearing on the current squad. The current squad is CQ's product and vision, and it is showing. TM has a great chance to make the round of 16 depending on the group.

[littlepersia17]

World Cup 2018 Group Stage Simulation

CQ's current squad is incomparable to any previous TM squad. In previous generations, we never had a group of young talented players who grew up and matured in a single national team coach's system.

This team is unique, and they are a well-oiled machine. The previous team was a patchwork quilt of different pieces that were put together and were fairly old and inexperienced on international level.

Sardar is a player that despite being immature in career choices is a player that can single-handedly change a game. We have seen that. He scores braces against a team like Montenegro who is challenging in tough UEFA WCQ, scores with an ultra-defensive Rostov squad against Bayern and Atletico, two amazing defensive teams.

The rest of our squad is capable of shocking giants. TM 1998, 2006, 2014 have no bearing on the current squad. The current squad is CQ's product and vision, and it is showing. TM has a great chance to make the round of 16 depending on the group.

I know we proved ourselves against Montenegro, but I need more wins against top teams for me to be optimistic about our chances.

I know our defence is top notch, but can we prove it against European and South American teams? CQ should not shy away from friendlies against top teams.

We will have more to gain than lose, even if it ends in defeat for us.

I just don't feel comfortable right now if we head into the WC, having only proved ourselves against Asian teams.

[Iran_19]

Lets hope we get Sweden, Ghoddos will rip them a new one

We actually have tough time against teams which have tall strikers and play long cross balls.

[Afat11]

I know we proved ourselves against Montenegro, but I need more wins against top teams for me to be optimistic about our chances.

I know our defence is top notch, but can we prove it against European and South American teams? CQ should not shy away from friendlies against top teams.

We will have more to gain than lose, even if it ends in defeat for us.

I just don't feel comfortable right now if we head into the WC, having only proved ourselves against Asian teams.

Sadly, Iran will not likely clear a World Cup group with 9 points. I think that even 100 top notch friendlies will not greatly improve Iran's odds against top teams like Germany, Brazil, etc. Lichtenstein playing Spain and losing 8-0 isn't necessarily improving them greatly as a team.

That being said, Iran has a great chance of beating the Nigerias, Bosnias, etc. of the world, and winning against two teams is thankfully all you need in WC. Iran has proved that it can hold the top team to a shut out if need be. If we are drawn with a group of Argentina, Nigeria, and Bosnia today, I truly believe that we win the game against Nigeria, and tie Bosnia. That equals advancement to the knockout stage.

We should be preparing to beat mid-level national teams. Not practicing losing to Germany/Brazil 3-0. Sadly, we are never going to be at the point where we can consistently contend with those teams and trade punches. Those teams are too far advanced. Our goal should be able to beat teams like Russia, Bosnia, Sweden, etc. CQ's preparation plan makes sense. Let's be reasonable with the teams we are shooting to beat. Without a lot of good fortune, our talent cannot contend with the true top teams. We are very capable of beating most teams in the world though by frustrating them and countering.

[Leicester City]

I hope we get USA

[persiangodfather]

Poland Serbia Iran Italy
Would we make it?

[koush22]

Poland Serbia Iran Italy
Would we make it?

My model says our SR is higher than Serbia and Italy, so maybe! Poland is really highly rated in this model though.

[GoIran]

Poland Serbia Iran Italy
Would we make it?

We can't get 3 European teams.

[Lorestani]

Thanks for your model. Really interesting. Points to consider though:
1) We don't know what European team will end up in Pot 2, so you might wanna run the model with a team other than Serbia in that pot.
2) Whey did you choose goal difference as a factor? Not sure that's an important variable here.
3) As another variable, you could include world cup or continental performance in their previous editions.

[koush22]

We can't get 3 European teams.

We can. Top teams are in pot 1, pot 4 is the Europeans and pot 2 gets one European team.

[koush22]

Thanks for your model. Really interesting. Points to consider though:
1) We don't know what European team will end up in Pot 2, so you might wanna run the model with a team other than Serbia in that pot.
2) Whey did you choose goal difference as a factor? Not sure that's an important variable here.
3) As another variable, you could include world cup or continental performance in their previous editions.

I used Serbia because it was close to the median team in Pot 4.

I personally think goal difference is an important indicator of relative strength to other teams. If we just look at points, two teams might have the same points but one might have 10 more goal difference, therefore being the better team.

I could add another variable, but I already spent a lot of time on this! Maybe I'll do it again when the teams are finalized.