How many points to get through?

[versusdamon]

If we look at the past qualifications, there were less games played because the final round groups were usually smaller.

To make it comparable we look at total points divided by total games.

1. A really safe first place was usually achieved with over 2 points per game, normally between 2.2 to 2.5. For our group with overall 10 games this means we would need 22 to 25 points.
2. A really safe second place as usually achieved with 2 points per game. Means 20 points overall.
3. The variability for relegation is really high. Uzbekistan just reached the third place last time with 14 points and 8 games, so 1.75 points/game. For us overall again 17 or 18 points.

There are six more games to go:
Syria (away)
Qatar (away)
China (home)
Uzbekistan (home)
South Korea (away)
Syria (home)

Right now: 10 points

Some pessimistic assumptions:
China is basically out and we play them home -> 3 points
Syria at home 3 points, away 0 -> 3 points
Until here 16 points.

The big question mark are the remaining three games. I dont see us winning in SK to be honest. The other two games are crucial. One win would help us go through. The next game day is really important because it determines who is going for the top and who is out.

[Bessos]

15 Nov. We win in Malaysia against Syria -> 13 points

23 Mar. We win in Qatar -> 16 points

28 Mar. We win in Azadi against China -> 19 points

13 Jun. We win in Azadi against Uzbekistan -> 22 points -> We qualify for the World Cup with 2 games still left to play (Korea away and Syria home). We get to see fireworks at Azadi stadium and we will all be very happy.

Write down 13 June in your agenda.

[zereshk-ali]

Given Koreans and Uzbeks still have to play each other twice, realistically 10 more points should be enough to qualify.

[persiangodfather]

Cq was right when he warned everybody in iran who was delaying that the world cup qualifications will basically be sealed by Nov 2016

[GolfePersique]

15 Nov. We win in Malaysia against Syria -> 13 points

23 Mar. We win in Qatar -> 16 points

28 Mar. We win in Azadi against China -> 19 points

13 Jun. We win in Azadi against Uzbekistan -> 22 points -> We qualify for the World Cup with 2 games still left to play (Korea away and Syria home). We get to see fireworks at Azadi stadium and we will all be very happy.

Write down 13 June in your agenda.

I love your prediction, but the fireworks won't happen on that day. Uzbek match coincides with "Shabe Ghadr"!

[Abtin]

Syria home and away and China home are must wins. From Uzbekistan and Qatar we must get nothing less but draws. Against South Korea the best I think we can do is a draw.

[sarbaz]

23 points and we will finish first in the group

[Hosseini]

One game at a time!

[Hadi]

i think 4 points versus Syria. 3 versus china, one versus Qatar, one versus Uzbek and zero versus Korea is realistic.

That will bring us to 19 points and should be enough.

[Adesor Vafaseya]

put it simple 1 more away win, and all remaining home game wins will get us 100% qualified.

[Ata]

We will at least win 4 more games. We are the Iranian lions!!!

[Nima]

With 6 points 1gainst Syria
3 points against Uzbak and at least 1 point against China. We are 2nd

3 wins and one draw - as long as we win against Uzbak

[Bi-honar]

Provided we beat Syria in the next match as expected:

If Uzbekistan beat Korea in the next match, our direct qualification is pretty much guaranteed because Korea need to win all their remaining 5 matches and we have to drop 6 points for them to catch up with us. I'd say that's pretty much an impossible scenario.

If Uzbekistan tie Korea, Korea will still need to win all their matches and we need to drop 6 points for them to go ahead of us on points. Korea winning all their matches means Uzbekistan will lose another match so they'd have to have a 100% record in their remaining matches and we'd still have to drop at least 6 points for them to catch up. Again, that's pretty much an impossible scenario.

If Korea beat Uzbekistan, then we'll have both of them chasing us with 3 and 4 points behind but they can't both have a 100% win ratio going forward (since they still have to play each other one more time). So again, we'd have to drop at least 6 points and everything has to go perfectly for them for us not to qualify direct.

In short, the win yesterday was a HUGE step toward direct qualification and beating Syria in the next match would mean we will definitely qualify with 23 points and I'd say 95% with even 22 points (that's 3 ties or 2 losses going forward).

Let's also keep in mind, that our performance in the 2nd half of the games was MUCH better in 2014 than our performance in the 1st half, because of lack of friendlies and the team gelling together. So, unless there's an absolute melt-down of some kind (social, political, heaven forbid CQ getting sick or something), I can't see us dropping even 4 points after the Syria match, let alone 5 or 6.

[AIrani]

If we look at the past qualifications, there were less games played because the final round groups were usually smaller.

To make it comparable we look at total points divided by total games.

1. A really safe first place was usually achieved with over 2 points per game, normally between 2.2 to 2.5. For our group with overall 10 games this means we would need 22 to 25 points.
2. A really safe second place as usually achieved with 2 points per game. Means 20 points overall.
3. The variability for relegation is really high. Uzbekistan just reached the third place last time with 14 points and 8 games, so 1.75 points/game. For us overall again 17 or 18 points.

There are six more games to go:
Syria (away)
Qatar (away)
China (home)
Uzbekistan (home)
South Korea (away)
Syria (home)

Right now: 10 points

Some pessimistic assumptions:
China is basically out and we play them home -> 3 points
Syria at home 3 points, away 0 -> 3 points
Until here 16 points.

The big question mark are the remaining three games. I dont see us winning in SK to be honest. The other two games are crucial. One win would help us go through. The next game day is really important because it determines who is going for the top and who is out.

Syria hit Qatar post and could easily tie the game which they lost. Syria has two dangerous players who can score. I would be happy with four points from Syria. Two wins at home, Iran should qualify directly.

My wish is for Uzbek and Iran to qualify directly and S. Korea play in the playoff. S. Korea will also qualify to 2018 Russia.

[Iran Doost]

23 points, guaranteed 2nd place.

22 points, we can qualify with better goal difference than 3rd place team.

Here's why:

All teams have 6 games left. So if any team wins all their games, they can add another 18 points to their total. However, there are 2 games between Korea and Uzbs left. The outcomes of those games will have a major impact on how many points we need to qualify as one of the top 2 teams. Finishing second is all we need. Currently:
Iran has 10 points
Uzbaks have 9 points
Korea has 7 points

Possible outcomes of games between Korea and Uzbaks:

1. Korea wins both: Uzbs can get maximum of 12 more points ==> They get 21 points. We need 22 points to qualify on points OR 21 with better goal diff that Uzbs.

2. Uzbs win both: Korea can get maximum of 12 more points ==> They get 19 points. We need 20 points to qualify on points or 19 with better goal diff than Korea.

3. Korea and Uzbs each win one: Korea can get maximum of 15 more points ==> They get 22 pints. We need 23 to qualify on points or 22 with better goal diff than Korea.

4. Uzbs win one and tie one: Korea can get maximum of 13 more points ==> They get 20 points. We need 21 to qualify on points or 20 with better goal diff than Korea.

5. Korea wins one and ties one: Uzbs can get maximum of 13 more points ==> They get 22 points. We need 23 to qualify on points or 22 with better goal diff than Uzbs.

6. Korea and Uzbs tie both: Korea can get maximum of 14 more points ==> They get 21 points. We need 22 to qualify on points or 21 with better goal diff than Korea.

Other teams cannot get to 23 points.

So we need max of 13 more points to qualify or 12 with better goal difference (see 3 and 5 above). Most likely we can qualify with 21 or even 20 points.