READ the post before you vote, plz

[Doctor DOOM]

Plz read the following before posting a vote in the poll.

REALISTICALLY, considering:
1- our circumstances,
2- TM's level of prformances
3- TM's potential
4- Situation and strength of opponents
5- Travel schedule for Iran
6- Ghotbi's capabilities and level in coaching
.... and again, REALISTICALLY , ... not some wild wishes or hopes or dreams , exactly how many points do you think GHOTBI is CAPABLE of getting in the next 3 games?


we may WISH for all the 9 points. that's fine.
but going over the factors above, what WOULD NOT SURPRISE YOU in the end?


usually what we MUST is different from what we see happen.
yes, we MUST win X and Y. but considering all the factors, will we?

lets make a distinction here between what we WISH FOR or what MUST be done and what in reality is our capability and probability?

before the ksa game or SKorea game or UAE game in previous games, I'm sure we had said "we MUST WIN this game" ... but DID WE?
No. we drew 2 and lost the other!
so there IS a difference between "must" and "reality".

[pajamNL]

Considering i didn't read your opening post ....




:D


no, just joking; i think we can get something in between of 4-6 points from the last 3 games (win against UAE, draw or win against NK)

[zzgloo]

ghotbi will do a fine job....
we will get seven points, while 9 is not out of question.

[Martin-Reza]

I guess 4-7 and went for the optimistic one.

3 against UAE are duty. Then 3 in DPR are possible and needed. And then I think since it doesn't matter for Korea Republic anymore probably and he knows the team well, a point in Seoul should be possible.

That could even be direct quali. If KSA doesn't get a point in Seoul and our goal difference is ok.

[Payam_S]

3 to 5 points..
Considering all those points and what we've seen so far of our football i cannot be more hopeful and positive then this.

[Behrooz]

3 points vs N. Korea- a "must" win to survive & continue.
3 points vs UAE, A "Must" win to have a chance and recover from KSA loss.
1 point vs S. Korea- At least one point and play to win.

[Doctor DOOM]

again ... are these what you WANT to see?

or are they what you EXPECT and wouldnt be surprised to see?

[pajamNL]

i expect and won't be surprised to see TM beating UAE and taking one point from NK and i want them to beat al three opponents :eyebrows:

[Payam_S]

or are they what you EXPECT and wouldnt be surprised to see?

This is what wouldnt surprise me..not because of Ghotbi or MK but the situation we are and have been through in.

[shayan20]

well we need a jadoogar to get more than 5 points.

win against UAE
draw the other 2.

[BehzadB]

exactly how many points do you think GHOTBI is CAPABLE of getting in the next 3 games?


Capable (as in possible): 9 Points
won't surprise me: 9 Points

Expect: the unexpected

[Doctor DOOM]

^ baba .. ey val.
benazam be een del o jor'at.
damet garm


but "capable" is NOT "possible" as u well know.

[BehzadB]

^ baba .. ey val.
benazam be een del o jor'at.
damet garm


but "capable" is NOT "possible" as u well know.


I would have said the same even if MK or Daie or GN was the coach..
3 games means 9 points up for grabs..

[Adesor Vafaseya]

considering the "Ghalbeh Shir" effect :D, I say 9 points.

[metallica69]

i guess if team spirit is up we can beat all three teams guys we have a good team and with the right subs and tactic we can win NK & SK i am worried about UAE to be ohnest they palyed well against KSA which was a suprise

[PouriaAkaBarut]

I dont think more then 6. Because The fact That he has very limited time ! But He could Still be a great coach in the futur for our Asian cup or Even olympic , Serisouly guys When was the last time that Iran won the Asian cup !?

[Hadi]

realistically, I'd say 4

[IRANMAN]

7 would be enough.
However 9 would be excellent.

[farguli]

9:)

[Doctor DOOM]

so all the 5 guys who've voted 9 points, you'd be surprised to see less than that ?
especially when we got 6 points in 5 games , against the very same teams but in IRAN ?
now, there are 2 AWAY games to the koreas.

really 9 points is what u expect?
what's changed in a team that couldnt beat the SK at home?

[faraz]

7 points.

Beating UAE is an absolute must, there's 3.

We always beat NK for some reason and I doubt it'll be any different this time, that's 3.

I hope to god that SK will have already qualified and so they will play their B-team and treat us as a friendly - we could muster up a point there, that's 1.

That's a total of 7 points.

[Doctor DOOM]

^ this is what I'm saying:

usually what we MUST is different from what we see happen.

yes, we MUST win X and Y. but considering all the factors, will we?

cant you all make a distinction here between what we WISH FOR or what MUST be done and what in reality is our capability and probability?


before the ksa game or SKorea game or UAE game in previous games, I'm sure we had said "we MUST WIN this game" ... but DID WE?
so there IS a difference between "must" and "reality"

[farguli]

i said 9! i believe iran is capable( and capable means possible)of getting all the points left. we are gonna beat uae in tehran no surprise there. we are gonna beat n.korea away because we need to and we always have. last game s korea doesnt have the motivation we will have, plus we could beat them every time we played them. so its not like they are out of reach ever. we can come up with 9 points with the right motivation and professionalism.

[faraz]

Well by saying it's a must, i'm saying it will happen. We have more gheyrat than that.

It's one thing to lose to Saudi Arabia - it's a whole other thing to lose to the weakest team in the group at home.

I honestly, for some reason, have a gut feeling that we'll beat North Korea. I don't know what it is, but I've always thought they fear us for some reason and it's just a matter of time before we break them down. Also, I have a feeling North Korea just CANNOT keep up their play for much longer. They'll start losing and either scrape third or go down to 4th.

and the last game, well, that is the only one i'm being hopeful for the draw - maybe I should have voted 6.

[Doctor DOOM]

before the ksa game or SKorea game or UAE game in previous games, I'm sure we had said "we MUST WIN this game" ... but DID WE?

No. we drew 2 and lost the other!
I think even then, we had this "gheyrat" and motivation or ... .

so there IS a difference between "must" and "reality".

and farguli, CAN we beat SKorea?
yes.
but does it happen all the time?
NO.
did we beat them IN AZADI ?
No.
have we beaten them in SKorea ?
No. at the most, we've drawn.

so the question is not about "CAN". it's about what probably will happen.

===========

all this is to force you to come to grips with reality and if something happens, you shd not all get demoralized or depressed beyond reality. and as usual, like all iranian traditions, suddenly lash out at ghotbi for "failing to get 3 wins our of 3" !!!!!
be realistic

[faraz]

^^yes, that is true.

BUT HOW MUCH LONGER CAN WE SAY IT WITHOUT IT HAPPENING IS MY QUESTION? :D

really though, we are due for a couple of wins, and it'll be delivered peyman jan.

keep this post (but please don't bring it up if under some strange events, it does not happen).

[gol_kuchik]

I voted for 5:

We have already beaten N.K and with Ghotbi in charge as he knows them
well, we should not expect a regression in this area. Particularly since
this is the first game. 3 points

UAE: As we saw against SA they are a good team, and they will come
to fight. They want to take as many points and I am afraid due to this
schedule (remember last year we raised this issue and what was the
response of some the TM coaches/assisstant?) the team will be very
tired. Here: another draw +1

Against S.K:
By that time South Korea has already qualified, we will have 7 days
to make the trip back and recover. Still I can't see how we can
beat them, given we have not done it for sometimes: Under
GN, Daei ...

So 5 points is very reasonable.

[yashar_fasihnia]

i would say 4.
we will beat UAE and draw north korea away.
if south korea doesnt take us seriously on the last day, then maybe 5.

[farguli]

Doctor doom Jan

I got my degree in mathematics and although stats not my specialty i have done lots of it. I can sit down and explain the probabilities and tell u that we wont have the 9 points. its not about that i believe iran can beat all three teams this time around for all i said before. am i biased for iran? maybe but if we are not positive then it WILL have negative influence on our team. therfore, Iran can come out with 9 points out of these 3 games and i will be happy to see our team has reached her potential BUT NOT SURPRISED.

[perspolees]

good post!
ddjan realistic answer to this post will only be possible after our korea game
with so many apples in the air that game could go any different direction.
if we get those three points I am confident we will ring in 7 points
and if not
then it is immaterial anyways!

[Doctor DOOM]

good post!
ddjan realistic answer to this post will only be possible after our korea game
with so many apples in the air that game could go any different direction.


if we get those three points I am confident we will ring in 7 points
and if not
then it is immaterial anyways!


1- the whole intriguing point is to predict it BEFORE that ever-crucial NKorea game.
coz you are perfectly right. the result of that game will have a tremendous impact on the rest of the campaign.
a win there will raise our determination and drive to the sky and we'll be almost unstoppable against uae. and from then on, who knows.


2- If we draw the NKoreans ( and if we get 5 points ), but they lose to ksa, we and Nkorea end up at 11 points and it is WE, who will qualify as the third team.
so getting 5 points isnt the end of it ... mathematically speaking.


3- even with 4 points ... if we beat NKorea and NKorea loses to ksa .. we'd qualify as the third team.

============

and dear farguli, as I said before, it is NOT about stats, maths or numbers or the general capability of a team.
it is about what do we FEEL ( different from "want" or "wish for" mind you) inside given all the factors mentioned, our present situation and circumstances.

[Masoud_A]

He is gonna get 4 IMO, and it will be a good result for him considering out situation.

[eissan]

The difference between the KSA and SK game and the next one is it is now DO OR DIE. tying SK and losing to KSA is one thing but now there are 3 games left and we need results and looking back at recent history(last world cup qualifying) when the team had its back against the wall it responded.

I voted for 7 because realistically out of the final 3 we need 2 wins and 1 tie it doesnt matter what order they come in as long as we get 2 wins 1 tie...I would not be suprised if we tied NK, beat UAE and then shocked SK by beating them. I also would not be suprised if we beat both koreans and tied UAE.

The reason for it? because this is football and nothing is set in stone.

[Amin_]

I think it's going to be 4 and I'm afraid it won't be enough for direct qualification (perhaps not even for the 3rd spot) :o

I hope I'm dead wrong though...

[Doctor DOOM]

I think it's going to be 4 and I'm afraid it won't be enough for direct qualification (perhaps not even for the 3rd spot) :o
I hope I'm dead wrong though...

even with 4 points ... if we beat NKorea and NKorea loses to ksa .. we'd qualify as the third team.

[blue blood]

9 points. Certainly possible.
The reason;
Ghotbi's attitude.
New key players like Karimi, Khalili......maybe Zandi
New level of excitement and hope from fans

[Amir-Che]

At least 6 points from 2 games, and 1 or 3 points from another game.

So 7 or 9 points. Most likely 7.

[PersianPrins]

i said 5 points beacuse im 100% sure that Iran can't win against NK, and must defiently not SK. A win against UAE is the must optimistic i can be

[Amin_]

even with 4 points ... if we beat NKorea and NKorea loses to ksa .. we'd qualify as the third team.
It depends where we get the 4 points from...everyone expects us to lose to SK, but let's say we lose in NK and get the 4 points from the UAE and SK game then it will not be the case:

4 points in this way --> we lose in NK, beat UAE and draw SK ---> 10 points.

* SK beats UAE on the 6th of June --> SK 14 points.

* Iran loses to NK on the same day (Khoda Nakoneh) --> NK 13 points, Iran 6 points.

* 10th of June, Iran beats UAE ---> Iran 9 points
Same day, SK and KSA draw --> SK 15 points, KSA 11 points.

* 17th of June, KSA and NK draw --> NK 14 points, KSA 12 points.
Same day Iran draws SK --> SK 16 points, Iran 10 points.

Which means the following:

1) South Korea 16
2) North Korea 14
3) Saudi Arabia 12
4) Iran 10
5) UAE 1

If we take the above, even if we'd beat SK in Korea we still might not finish as 3rd (depending on goal difference/head to head - I'm not sure what counts).

So even with 4 points we still are not certain of the 3rd spot (theoretically). It all comes down to the match in North Korea. We MUST beat them there!!

[SuperMan]

Realistically speaking.... 9 Points.

We need 9 points to redeem ourselves. That's a difference beween a champion and a contender. Anything less should not be acceptable. If we wish to be called an Asian powerhouse,, we need to prove it to ourselves and others.

We are certainly capable of getting all 9 points; we have the talent, resolve, and desire. We just need to make sure we play 90 minutes of offensive-minded footbal in each game. We cannot rely on only one goal, and we should not accept it. There has to be a clear difference between us and our opponents! The luck will follow.

So, realistically... We need 9 points; forget about what if's!!!

[Roozbeh-G2006]

Sorry mate, your explanations for your poll is rather crafty. You are really pressurising people to accept that it is very difficult to get the whole 9 points and you even suggest that any one who votes 9 points is being wishful. In fact, it is possible to get the whole 9 points even considering all the factors you have mentioned. So I will vote for 9 points because I like to remain optimistic unlike you!

[Doctor DOOM]

It depends where we get the 4 points from...everyone expects us to lose to SK, but let's say we lose in NK and get the 4 points from the UAE and SK game then it will not be the case:
4 points in this way --> we lose in NK, beat UAE and draw SK ---> 10 points.
* SK beats UAE on the 6th of June --> SK 14 points.
* Iran loses to NK on the same day (Khoda Nakoneh) --> NK 13 points, Iran 6 points.
* 10th of June, Iran beats UAE ---> Iran 9 points
Same day, SK and KSA draw --> SK 15 points, KSA 11 points.
* 17th of June, KSA and NK draw --> NK 14 points, KSA 12 points.
Same day Iran draws SK --> SK 16 points, Iran 10 points.
Which means the following:
1) South Korea 16
2) North Korea 14
3) Saudi Arabia 12
4) Iran 10
5) UAE 1
If we take the above, even if we'd beat SK in Korea we still might not finish as 3rd (depending on goal difference/head to head - I'm not sure what counts).
So even with 4 points we still are not certain of the 3rd spot (theoretically). It all comes down to the match in North Korea. We MUST beat them there!!

????

before writing all this, I hope you did read the whole SENTENCE I replied to ur post. didnt you?
:o :)

[Doctor DOOM]

Realistically speaking.... 9 Points.
We need 9 points to redeem ourselves. That's a difference beween a champion and a contender. Anything less should not be acceptable. If we wish to be called an Asian powerhouse,, we need to prove it to ourselves and others.
We are certainly capable of getting all 9 points; we have the talent, resolve, and desire. We just need to make sure we play 90 minutes of offensive-minded footbal in each game. We cannot rely on only one goal, and we should not accept it. There has to be a clear difference between us and our opponents! The luck will follow.
So, realistically... We need 9 points; forget about what if's!!!


why?
we didnt have the resolve or desire in the past 5 games?
we didnt have the capability in the past 5 games?
we didnt have the talent in the past 5 games?
we didnt need the points in the past 5 games?
we didnt want to be called an asian powerhouse in the past 5 games?

so what happened?
how come we got only 6 points out of those 5 games with the same desire, resolve, need, talent, capability,....?????

that's why I said REALISTICALLY speaking, my friend.

we all wish for all 9 points.
who isnt?
but with setting ourselves up this way, we are allowing for a lot of other factors to affect us and as usual when we dont get what we want, we lash out and become destructive, abusive, rash, violent, ... as has happened a 1000 times before.

[gol_kuchik]

Thank DD Jan, it goes to show how out of touch with reality our fans are.
Realistically means based on what is real and I should say probable.

Of course everything in future is unknown. That is why we assign probability
(I was a math major ;)) on the likelyhood of an event:
======
Here are some simple mathematical computation: We have had 5 of our 8 games
already played. We got 6 points out of 5 games. If the same pattern is maintained we will get another 3.6 points out of the next 3 games. That rounded up to nearest whole number results in 4 <=== This is the purely mathematical points.
=====
Based on past performance is another view, although statistically speaking each game
is an independent event, the fact that we have won all of our games against N.K
in recent times tells us that it is more likely we beat them again. That is why I gave
the 3 points to our team. Same for U.A.E and S.K

Also we can look at other stats, N.K for instance has conceeded few goals than Iran, and S.K has allowed only 3 gaols! (Exactly half of Iran). What would cause this pattern
to change when both are playing at home with our travel schedule?

====
Now we factor the intangibles: like players getting fired up etc etc.
That is now the realm of -Luck-- and --Miracles-- The fact on the ground shows our t
eam has no --significant-- advantage over any of the teams we will play against.
Worse in defense ,we are only better than U.A.E which is not encouraging at all.

On the negative side of the intangibles: I always fear even if we do well in one game
we get some not well wishers interfering (if you know what I mean) just to prove a point
against a coach they dont approve.

So eventhough I voted for 5 points, realistically 4 is the smartest answer.

[Ghormeh Sabzi]

i think mentally qotbi will bring TM much closer together and much more focused then daei did, something that TM desperately needs

[The-Red]

we can do 7 with Ghtobi, we really can. It's about how he gets the team mentally ready for these games and I think he can handle that.

[Doctor DOOM]

^ you mean we "WILL" , right?
coz if it is "CAN", then we CAN get 9 points also. but WILL we?

[KC McElroy]

I think 6 points with wins against UAE and North Korea. Anything above that would be a pleasant surprise.

[eissan]

^ you mean we "WILL" , right?
coz if it is "CAN", then we CAN get 9 points also. but WILL we?
I am sorry I know you asked The Red if we will or not but it seems like you are wanting everyone to look into their crystal ball and say we will or wont.

NO ONE can see the future, you can create probabilities based on history but how can you expect people to say,"WE WILL get the 7/9 points out of the last 3 games". I mean you said lets be realistic and then you are asking if we will or wont on events that havent occured yet.

I think with everyone else who voted 7/9 points that we THINK we WILL get the 7/9 points. what is this based on? hope, luck,mircles, potential? probably, but it is what we THINK might happen it may not happen to but its just a matter of opinion.

we cant assume anything as people know the famous saying," assumption is the muther of all f**k ups" :D so lets just hope for the best and maybe our new coach can get something going for this team like he did with perspolis last year.

[Doctor DOOM]

No, my friend, I am not asking ppl to check their crystal ball or anything.

I thought I made the question as simple as I could:
IRRESPECTIVE OF WHAT WE WANT, LIKE OR DESIRE (and that includes what we think we're CAPABLE OF ) , what do we think we'd end up with, given all the circumstances.

that's why I wanted to clarify the use of the word "can".
is it based on our "capability", or is it based on what armin thought we'd get? coz the two are separate things.

[The-Red]

^ you mean we "WILL" , right?
coz if it is "CAN", then we CAN get 9 points also. but WILL we?
well football is a game of what occurs during the game and I mean to say that with Ghtobi we are capable of getting 7 points, meaning we increased our chances of doing that, but whether we will or not, we won't know 'til June.
I guess if I had to answer your question DD jan, with little bit of optimism, yes we WILL get 7 points :)

[BehzadB]

No, my friend, I am not asking ppl to check their crystal ball or anything.

I thought I made the question as simple as I could:


Your explanation in your first post is actually what caused the confusion for some..:D

You should have used one sentence. something like:

How many points WILL TM get in the next three games?

simple, no?

[Ali]

2 wins , 1 draw, 7 points

[SarzamineMan]

the closest estimate would be maximum of 5 and minimum of 3,

UAE 1 point
NK 3 point
SK 1 point

now considering the home advantage issue, this can be turn to,

UAE 3 points - since we play them in home now.
NK 1 point - we beat them at home, so the tie result would be the most probable result and chance to beat them is narrow (realistically)
SK-0 - we tie at home, so the realistic result would be a lost, however with a little push we might get the tie since they do not need to beat us in order to qualify.

Now since many miracle can happen in football, if we are lucky, we might be able to push for 7, however I believe 9 is out of question since this current team does not have all the necessary tools for it.

3 point 95%
4 point 90%
5 point 60%
6 point 50%
7 point 12%
9 point 1%

[Doctor DOOM]

Your explanation in your first post is actually what caused the confusion for some..:D
You should have used one sentence. something like:
How many points WILL TM get in the next three games?
simple, no?


unfortunately I have seen too many polls and questions like that get misunderstood to leave it to one simple sentence of explanation!!!! :o :(

I have seen wishes, dreams, and other matters get mixed with them. hence the convoluted explanation ! :rolleyes:

[shayan_esteghlali]

anything less then 9 points will be a failure

[hamidr316]

anything less then 9 points will be a failure

If you call anything less then 9 points in 3 matches a failure. what do you call 6 points in 5 matches?

[Pedram123]

I guess 4-7 and went for the optimistic one.

3 against UAE are duty. Then 3 in DPR are possible and needed. And then I think since it doesn't matter for Korea Republic anymore probably and he knows the team well, a point in Seoul should be possible.

That could even be direct quali. If KSA doesn't get a point in Seoul and our goal difference is ok.

I agree with this.
7 Points hopefully.

[persepolisfan]

7 points

[Autreen]

win against NK
win against UAE
loss against SK

six solid points. That's being realistic, of course

[Classyahmad]

I don't really think it matters how many points we get. We must look further than just getting the required number of points to qualify.

What exactly is the point of scraping by in to 3rd place and the possibilty of a play off. Does any team really deserve to be in the world cup by qualifying in that manner???

If we are who we claim to be, then we must show the footballing world that we really are who we say we are !!

We have always claimed that we are the top dog in Asia, so I think we really must put our money where our mouth is and qualify in a convincing fashion to show the world that we really do mean business !!!

Convincing fashion in my mind would be at least 7 points if not the whole 9 !!!

[soccerfan2005]

again ... are these what you WANT to see?

or are they what you EXPECT and wouldnt be surprised to see?

i am hoping for 7... but who knows how players react to
ghotbi leadership... it is going to be tough in N.Korea...

repped !

[TruePersian]

I fully and honestly expect 5
i would expect less, but i believe our players our fine, our coach wasnt, and i know ghotbi will fill holes so 5 is the most reasonable number i can come up with.
This is looking at the history of our football (past few games) and seeing how we play

Ghotbi, you're more than welcome to surprise me ;)

[El Matador]

I expect 5 points for Iran, with this Scenario:

Draw with N.Korea - Win against UAE - Draw againt S.Korea

That was the expectations....now aside from this, and given the new coach's attitude which is very needed at this time....I think everything is possible....AND, the outcome of the game against N.korea could make this possibility a reality....If Iran get a win against N.Korea then it would be a huge morale boost that could bring victories for the next 2 matches.

The game against UAE is a dangerous one because Iran will be playing against a team that got nothing to lose, they were tough to handle to KSA...I hope they could be as tough for S.Korea as well...

A possible (Realistic) scenario for Iran to qualify is when KSA and S.Korea keep winning their games, then Iran would qualify as the group's 3rd....

Anyway, I wish KSA and Iran finish as the top 2 and leave the 3rd spot for the Koreans to fight for....:)

[Doctor DOOM]

somehow I think by the last day many of us will be rooting for a KSA victory over NK.

[Amin_]

????
before writing all this, I hope you did read the whole SENTENCE I replied to ur post. didnt you?
:o :)
Sorry I don't know how my brain skipped the "beating NK" part :o

Yes, NK is the most important game for us and a win is a MUST.

[Piroozi]

I want to see 9 but I think we will get 7.