Developing realistic expectations for World Cup

[Martin-Reza]

The nice thing about football is that often things come other than expected, but I thought about what to expect from the World Cup since the draw and I must say expecting anything but the third place in the group is unrealistic.

Again, this doesn't mean we are chanceless or should be afraid, we surely have enough quality to beat any team, but if I had to bet my money on it, I'd say the most likely outcome is the third place.

If we look at Portugal, we see a team full of star players from great European teams (Barcelona, Chelsea, ManU, Inter) and players from the domestic league, which undoubtedly is stronger than the IPL. The players, both at club level as well as on national team level, regulary face topsides, while our players barely have experience in international competitions and mostly play weak opposition playing destructive football. Apart from Mahdavikia and Daei, no player has any World Cup experience or considerable European Cup experience (Hashemian and Karimi 2 Champions League matches each). This experience factor is a huge deficit in my eyes.

Looking at Mexico we first see they were among the 8 top seeds, so according to FIFA even stronger than Portugal. Of course FIFA bases the seeding on FIFA ranking and WC performances in 98 and 2002, so it might not fully be objective. If we look at the Mexican players, we see that not many play in Europe, however, the Mexican league is known as very strong league, where many stars of South and Central America gather. I believe the league is stronger than IPL too. Furthermore most Mexican national team players have international experience, eg. from the past World Cup or the recent Confederations Cup. I think our chances against them are a bit better than against Portugal, but yet we are underdogs in that match.

Finally Angola can't match the quality (and number) of Iran's players abroad, neither is their league stronger than the IPL. The international experience of their players is even less than our players', so these two aspects speak for Iran.

Other considerable factors are coach (but I don't feel in the position to compare the coaches, just think Scolari stands out), pressure (Portugal and Mexico will have huge pressure, Angola little - if any - and Iran will have a lot of pressure from Iran, but not as much as the two top sides), adaption to weather conditions, preperations and supporters. But none of them is strong enough to really make up for quality and experience.

So I think we must be realistic enough not to consider it as catastrophe if we don't advance from the group stage, although I hope and believe we indeed could upset one of the stronger teams and achieve a little sensation.

Your opinions welcome.

[zzgloo]

Dear martin Reza,....
although,your assesment is logical, but I must say, is very cold, and not to be believed by a typial Iranian fan....
Today's football is not all that predetermind,,,,and the differences among teams are not as huge as once was.....
In your comment, you said,,,,," expecting other than third place is unrealistic "......, we all know ,that in mexico and portugal,they have better leagues,and more expereinced players, yet..they also have thier share of weaknesses.....and they have never achived thier own expectations either...
you As person of faith in Branko's ability, and encouraging others to be patinet...I expected more out of your expectations.

[Martin-Reza]

Well, expectations should be defined cool-minded and not by what we'd like. Of course the differences are not huge - that's why I didn't say we cannot beat those teams.

You are also right about those teams having their share of weakness, but our share is bigger than theirs, that's why we cannot expect to beat them.

The problem I see is, as you say, that the typical Iranian fan refuses to believe (or rather accept) that. The opposition is underrated and so will any success against them be underrated, should we have any. I am afraid there will never be a real step forward in Iran's football before the fans don't develop a more realistic sense of Iran's strength.

In order to see the vast difference between how many Iranian fans see it and the rest of the world see it, just take a look at the betting odds (here from betandwin as example). And don't forget, they are not assessing emotionally or by what they'd like to, for them it's dead serious business, it's about lots of money and the right assessment is important for their existance. That doesn't necessarily make them right, but it makes them more objective than the typical Iranian fan.

Iran 2.85 X 3.20 Angola 2.30

Groupwinners:
Portugal 1.70
Mexiko 2.35
Angola 15.00
Iran 23.00

Which teams will qualify from Group D?:
Angola 3.25
Iran 4.25
Mexiko 1.25
Portugal 1.12

[zzgloo]

As an iranian fan, I shall refuse to believe we are doomed.....
Football,is not mathematics,nor estatistics......that is why, they call it a GAME !

[Martin-Reza]

Please don't misinterpret what I said. I never said we are doomed or anything like that. I just think we must accept a third place in this group is no catastrophe but the most likely outcome - yet we must aim to finish second of course, which is indeed possible!

[186forever]

True, but I still believe that 4 points is very well possilbe and not beyond expectation.

[Doctor DOOM]

zz jan, actually the problem lies with fools like :
cameroon , nigeria, turkey, s korea, senegal, .... who didnt follow the "logic" and "rules"

the ninkumpoohs didnt even bother to read the memo given to them stating :

"You, the recipient of this memo, have been chosen by the high committe of XXXX logic and have been sentenced to bow down and crumble when facing teams like argentina, france, italy, spain, .... .
You are instructed , by the same logic, to stay "too sari khor" and lay down or bend over ( whichever suits you most ) in such confrontations, lest we see such atrocities as North korea's 1960's run, which is considered an utter blasphemy and an aberration in fabric of reality.

It is not adviced, however , is looked kindly upon, if you utter such sounds as Baaaaaa Baaaaaaaa , every 20-30 minutes. We can promise such acts will be taken into consideration at a later date for rewards and other prizes.

should you be seen to have the impertinence to actually dare to want more, or have the audacity to strive for higher positions, you will be dealt with severely.

You are encouraged to limit your desires and wants.
you are encouraged to accept any level or standards pressed upon you.
You are advised to not only accede , but also propogate mediocrity.
You are ordered to lower the expectations of your beligerent fans, lest you exercise the limits of admonishment by our committee."

I believe such a memo has been already dispatched to us ( IFF ) , hence our recent performances.

in fact I hear fifa is planning to severely punish those teams that stand up to bigger teams and actually challenge them for higher glory !



mediocrity and sheepish contentment is the NEW world order.

[zzgloo]

DD jan, I understand what you mean,and I although know what Martin-reza is saying,which is very logical, yet, there are good points and signals that indicate we have better chances and yes,can have higher EXPECTATIONS !!!

1- Mexico,is the weakest first seeded team.

2- mexicans ,culturaly, do not intimidate us.

3-mexicans do not have better physics than we do.

4-Portugal,is an inconsistant football team.

5-Portugal,is among weaker secound seeded teams.

6-Angola, is ranked may be the 8 th most powerful team in the Africa...Tunesia is ranked 28 th, togo,ghana,and Iv,coast are between 41 th to 56 th ranked, and angola is ranked 62 nd,ranked in the world, and more over,moraco,nigeria,cameroon,senegal,and south africa are ranked better than Angola.......so, ralationship of angola to africa, is like the united arab emerates in Asia.

7- in last two years, angola has played with Portugal twice, and it has lost both times..5-1 and 6-0.

8- mexico 7 th rank in the world, is extremly overrated, and the rank 15 or 16 is fairer.

9-Iranian team,is the most powerful Iranian team ever.

10-Iranian team has more European experinced players than mexico or angola.

11- Iran will have better ,and more fans in stands,than mexico or angola.

12- portugal, in its lost to Korea,in the last world cup,did not impress anybody.

[Nokhodi]

I agree with you Martin-Reza, but I don't want TM to underperform. Why are we hearing nothing about friendlies for TM other than some rumours about a match with Honduras? This is absolutely pissing me off, seeing how even teams like Saudi have been able to arrange friendlies, and how Sweden is pretty much asking a middle eastern team to play them.
Sure I know only 2 of those dates will feature the full squads, but some decent friendlies can be arranged to test our domestic players, and fix out formation problems.
Money should not be an issue, FIFA has awarded IFF plenty of money, and at this point most national teams are not asking for too much to play a friendly, seeing that they need preparation against teams that will be in the WC.

[Doctor DOOM]

zz jan, ghorboonet.

excellently dissected.

my question is with all your points considered, shd not we see this WC as the one chance we will get in a long time ( and ever had previosuly ) to SHINE ?

with all the above points, I would say we must utilize everything, every possible thing at our disposal to make sure we dont come back and say "ahh , I wish we had done that better", or "we could have had this one too", or ... later !

hence my post :
CEASE THE DAY.

cease the opportunity.

who knows when we're gonna have such a group?
maybe the next time ( which is not necessarily in 2010 ) we'd get a group like argentina's !

so THIS is the time to aim high.
and this is the time to make sure we get 110% out of the team and campaign.

to settle for mediocrity and low standards, just becoz we feel "inferior" and see things as if "we shd not dare ... " , to me, is a CRIMINAL WASTE OF OPPORTUNITY.

[perspolees]

thats what I believe as well.
realistically we wont go thru and will come in third.
the genius of a plan would be increasing our chances of becoming second..

as little as that chance is I believe in going full force on exploring it, something that witht he current technical staff will not be possible so coming third is the best that this Iran could do...

[faraz]

It wouldn't be a catastrophe if we didn't qualify, but i'd at least like Iran to make the EFFORT. Who knows when the next time will be when we get to play in a WC, and get this sort of group, which is not as difficult as you make it out to be IMO.

I whole-heartedly expect Branko to aim for FIRST in the group - not even second. We are capable of competing with these sides, and if there's ONE (just ONE) time when we should put the gas on the throttle its now.

As long as there are certain changes in the squad (some pertaining to Branko, some not), i see no reason why we should not aim to win the group.

MR jan - the time to be realistic is not now. Playing in the WC is no longer about what leagues you play in, what stars you have - it's about motivation, hunger, desire and courage.

I hope to see all 4 attributes from TM, nothing more, nothing less.

[Martin-Reza]

Well, I think being realistic is the first step for higher dreams. I doubt you can have success if you expect to beat Mexico in the opener and believe Portugal is no big obstacle.

First we need to accept the situation, respect our opposition and know they are stronger than us in several departments. If we then don't make the mistake of being afraid or having too much respect, I think everything will be set for bigger targets.

The first step must be realizing though we are clear underdogs against Portugal and Mexico.

[maij]

There is no question in my mind about the ability of Iran to challenge both Portugal and Mexico in this group. Despite the advantages and the more experience of these 2 teams , we have enough strength and depth to upset both these teams.

In the WC qualifying matches, Portugal have not impressed me and I think they are there for the taking , while Mexico is the stronger of the two.

The question in my mind is whether the team melli and the coach have enough mental agility and desire to beat these 2.

It is no good going into the matches fearing the opposition or having far too much respect for them. Trying not to get beaten or humiliated is also not going to take TM very far.

If there is enough determination by the players and the coach , in parallel to the talent and individual skills that TM has , I do not see that beating either of the 2 teams as a difficult task.


Branko never struck me as an adventurous coach, however , and maybe since the World Cup is the ultimate stage with immense exposure , he might just be tempted to give it a good fight......

I say , it is mostly in the mind.....

[Amirza]

zz jan, actually the problem lies with fools like :
cameroon , nigeria, turkey, s korea, senegal, .... who didnt follow the "logic" and "rules"

the ninkumpoohs didnt even bother to read the memo given to them stating :

"You, the recipient of this memo, have been chosen by the high committe of XXXX logic and have been sentenced to bow down and crumble when facing teams like argentina, france, italy, spain, .... .
You are instructed , by the same logic, to stay "too sari khor" and lay down or bend over ( whichever suits you most ) in such confrontations, lest we see such atrocities as North korea's 1960's run, which is considered an utter blasphemy and an aberration in fabric of reality.



Exellent response.
Martin-Reza jaan - to me it seems like you are already preparing yourself for the let-down !! Personaly my expectations are not too high at all - especialy remembering the last official games our TM played. However - instead of living with my low expectations, I am voicing my concern trying to get officials make the necessary adjustments. But - one thing is for certain - come the first game - all of us will look for nothing less than victories against the 3 teams (well maybe a tie against Portugal) - the question is: Will Branco have the same attitude ? or will he present Iran as a Chicken Nation - defending with 7 players and the Lone Gamboo as the only player in the opposition half. :D

[VivaItalia]

Speaking of the reality, here is what Naser Hajazi said, according to Fifa:

The Iran Pas News Agency carried a rather different message in its interview with former Iran goalkeeper Nasser Hejazi, who said: "We could have had a better draw. We will have big problems against Mexico and Portugal and little-known Angola will also pose a big threat." Hejazi warned both players and supporters "not to fool ourselves" as "realistically speaking we have a minimum chance of finishing first or second in Group D".

http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/051214/1/5pep.html

[Doctor DOOM]

There is no question in my mind about the ability of Iran to challenge both Portugal and Mexico in this group. Despite the advantages and the more experience of these 2 teams , we have enough strength and depth to upset both these teams.

In the WC qualifying matches, Portugal have not impressed me and I think they are there for the taking , while Mexico is the stronger of the two.

The question in my mind is whether the team melli and the coach have enough mental agility and desire to beat these 2.

It is no good going into the matches fearing the opposition or having far too much respect for them. Trying not to get beaten or humiliated is also not going to take TM very far.

If there is enough determination by the players and the coach , in parallel to the talent and individual skills that TM has , I do not see that beating either of the 2 teams as a difficult task.


Branko never struck me as an adventurous coach, however , and maybe since the World Cup is the ultimate stage with immense exposure , he might just be tempted to give it a good fight......

I say , it is mostly in the mind.....


another classy post, majid jan.

lets all hope that TM does its absolute best and nothing short of, in the games.

who plays, who coaches, who sits on the bench does not matter.
what matters is TM makes its BEST effort to make its mark.

now, some would think branko will make a 180 turn around and get all daring and adventurous ( as majid jan says ).
well, that would be nice to see, and quite welcoming.

but if we dont see any signs of it ( and god knows we have not so far ) anytime soon, then what is to be done?

RESIGNED to an obscure fate of merely making up the numbers at the WC?

resignation to a watered down, frightened display?

is that what we expect?

at the end of the world cup, in case of such a display, only ONE man can extract some benefit out of it and actually put it in his resume.
not ANY of us !
I dont have a resume to put that in, neither does majid jan, nor martin, or amireza, or .... .

I would hate to sit in a group, where ppl say :
say, isnt your team the one that played like scared mice, showed woeful football and ultimately lost?
what was its name again? "


we want to hold our heads high , push out our chests and loudly announce:
Yes, I am from the same country that tortured portugal and mexico . I am from the land of Kia, karimi, daei, ... who made the portugese and mexicans SUFFER" ( whether they advanced or not , is a matter of how blessed we are ).

[Amirza]

Speaking of the reality, here is what Naser Hajazi said, according to Fifa:


If Hejazi had any vision - he would not have nominated himself to become a mullah stooge. :D

[Martin-Reza]

Exellent response.
Martin-Reza jaan - to me it seems like you are already preparing yourself for the let-down !! Personaly my expectations are not too high at all - especialy remembering the last official games our TM played. However - instead of living with my low expectations, I am voicing my concern trying to get officials make the necessary adjustments. But - one thing is for certain - come the first game - all of us will look for nothing less than victories against the 3 teams (well maybe a tie against Portugal) - the question is: Will Branco have the same attitude ? or will he present Iran as a Chicken Nation - defending with 7 players and the Lone Gamboo as the only player in the opposition half. :D

No, there is a different between belief and expectation. I totally agree with what you say. I honestly would like to still experience a time when we can be so confident to expect to easily get past a World Cup first seed and the European Championship's finalist at a World Cup. I do believe in my team and I wouldn't even call it a sensation if we make it, but we are not in the position to expect getting past topsides with much more experience than our team.

[zzgloo]

We all know, in last 6 mounths how much ,all of us, talked about coaching and coaching staff.......and the closer we get to the WC,the more this reality present itself to us.....
Do you all remember the game we had with North korea ,in north korea ?
The poor north koreans, tried and tried so much !!, they ran,and hustled and worked thier.......! off,for the 90 minutes....but, we were the ones with 2 goles !!!, and they did the same thing in thier first game with bahrain.....
so, what happened ?.....
determination, and ghairat will take you so far........., how ever, on thier next game with Iran,in Tehran, their game plan was much smarter,and they totaly shot down our right side and kabei,and kia.........
This an example of, importance of coaching, and not so much the hustle and determination of the players.......
all things equal, we will lose to mexico and portugal, as martin-reza suggested, yet, it is the job of an avangard coach,to make thing not equal !!!, so analyse the opponent,and maximize the out put of the talent at hand with a right game plan.we are not like North korea, and we defenetly have enough talent, that given a right game strategy, we could beat,both mexico and Portugal......

[Amirza]

We all know, in last 6 mounths how much ,all of us, talked about coaching and coaching staff.......and the closer we get to the WC,the more this reality present itself to us.....
Do you all remember the game we had with North korea ,in north korea ?
The poor north koreans, tried and tried so much !!, they ran,and hustled and worked thier.......! off,for the 90 minutes....but, we were the ones with 2 goles !!!, and they did the same thing in thier first game with bahrain.....
so, what happened ?.....
determination, and ghairat will take you so far........., how ever, on thier next game with Iran,in Tehran, their game plan was much smarter,and they totaly shot down our right side and kabei,and kia.........
This an example of, importance of coaching, and not so much the hustle and determination of the players.......
all things equal, we will lose to mexico and portugal, as martin-reza suggested, yet, it is the job of an avangard coach,to make thing not equal !!!, so analyse the opponent,and maximize the out put of the talent at hand with a right game plan.we are not like North korea, and we defenetly have enough talent, that given a right game strategy, we could beat,both mexico and Portugal......

Exellent Post.

[smanhoobi]

Nice read Martin jaan.

I dont want to argue the obvious. But I only say one thing.

Martin would be as happy as anyone else in this board when Iran advances to second round, God willing.

What Martin says here, is neither cold, nor depressing or a result of lost faith. Its about realities. Its a reality that knowing it "hurts". But , nevertheless, it is a reality. One can only achieve when they acknowledge the realities and without being hurt, try to focus on contributing factors of it starting from the root upwards. Until that is achieved, you hope for the best and hope that the best will help us in achieving logical, systematic treatment(solution).

In my opinion, Martin has always focused on that and in doing so, he has never lost faith or stopped supporting TM. And that happened both in his job in PFDC or personally. Therefore, I admire the man. And I think we all should.

Thanks
Soheil

[smanhoobi]

that given a right game strategy, we could beat,both mexico and Portugal......

Well true. But, with the best of strategies given to TM, I give 30% chance to us against Mexico and 20% chance against portugal.

You see aziz jaan. This is the difference between you and me and I should say martin.

20% and 30% are realistic numbers to me. But, it also has another message too. And that is the possibility that such a victory can happen.

However when it happens, I will be 70-80% happy about the victory. But when it does not happen, I will be 20-30% unhappy about it.

When Iran plays Laos, I give 90% chance for a victory to Iran. That is because, this is football and sport. Every underdog has a chance in this game. So if we play Laos 10 times, I say Laos will have a chance to snitch a point out of us in 10 games. So, when we win, I ll be happy 10% and when we loose to them I ll be unhappy 90% ( Close to devastation :D but not devastation itself). This is what Valdier Viera taught me and I happen to agree. :D

You not only live better this way :D but it also gives you a chance to realize stuff, have respect for anyone or anything and also helps you build the future better. You will never be totally devastated, nor you will be extraordinarily happy. It brings you a touch closer to the realities.

Hope I could explain myself.

Thanks
Soheil

[Martin-Reza]

Thanks soheil jan, you explained it well!

[zzgloo]

Well true. But, with the best of strategies given to TM, I give 30% chance to us against Mexico and 20% chance against portugal.
You see aziz jaan. This is the difference between you and me and I should say martin.
20% and 30% are realistic numbers to me. But, it also has another message too. And that is the possibility that such a victory can happen.
However when it happens, I will be 70-80% happy about the victory. But when it does not happen, I will be 20-30% unhappy about it.
When Iran plays Laos, I give 90% chance for a victory to Iran. That is because, this is football and sport. Every underdog has a chance in this game. So if we play Laos 10 times, I say Laos will have a chance to snitch a point out of us in 10 games. So, when we win, I ll be happy 10% and when we loose to them I ll be unhappy 90% ( Close to devastation :D but not devastation itself). This is what Valdier Viera taught me and I happen to agree. :D
You not only live better this way :D but it also gives you a chance to realize stuff, have respect for anyone or anything and also helps you build the future better. You will never be totally devastated, nor you will be extraordinarily happy. It brings you a touch closer to the realities.
Hope I could explain myself.
Thanks
Soheil
Dear Sohail, you explained yourself well.....and although I in general disagree,yet, your and martin's comments as I repeatedly said,is very logical........
The topic chosen by martin reza, was....." Developing realistic expectation...... "..................
Who does martin reza think we are? ..ofcourse, we know who is the stronger team, ofcourse we know who has the higher chance of winning......
But, what I differ with both of you...is the assertion of " Developing !!..."
The USA football team has developed very fast in football, and one of the reasons for thier success ( only one of the reasons ) , has been thier arrogance !!!, the lack of being intimidated, thier expectation to win against anybody....etc......, I know, they may be fooling themseleves, but so what ?
You can not tell Iranian players to go to the world cup, but your are going to be loseing !!!, just to be realistic..!!!, you can not hamper human spirit, just to be logical !!!
I saw,in the FIFA.com and the responses of asian teams to draws....
The japaneas and koreans are talking about advancing !!!
Why not us ?....do they have easier group ?
The depresive, meloncoly,passive Iranian poetry and culture, is not to be useful here......
So what, they have better players......We can not give up before the start, just because we want to be realistic......
We as fans, have to have a mind sets for our TM.......and being logical and DEVELOPING loseing EXPECTATION is not among them !!

[Martin-Reza]

This is not adressed to the players. It's to F+ members.

There were always people saying we are not happy with anything but going to second round. I always said we can not define our expectations until we know our group.

So since I can't decide on what everyone has to expect, I chose the term "developing". I was presenting my standpoint and thought we could kind of develop realistic targets and expectations together.

Anway, when you say
we know who is the stronger team, ofcourse we know who has the higher chance of winning...... I'm relieved that you are realistic. When I saw comments of many other people or even Iranian sports journalists, who celebrated having to leave either Portugal or Mexico behind (!), I wasn't so sure if everyone is aware that we are probably the third strongest team in that group theoretically.

Out chances in this group are much lower than in a group with Brazil and Ukraine in my eyes. In such a group I would have even expected to go through, in this group I simply cannot expect anything more than the third place, although it is surely possible and will also be Iran's target. We're all but chanceless, yet far from being favourites to advance.

[mamdali]

I said this a few months ago and I say it again: If we don't make it to the second round (regardless of grouping, regardless of 'analyses' and chances) I personally find the entire qualification process a waste of time. Who cares if we play NK, Bahrain, Japan and then get crushed in the WC first round? Is that all this was about?? Think about it and the teams Iran played. They really suck in the whole scheme of things. The analysis presumes (intentionally or not) the reason for our football is mere qualification. It also ratifies (if not ignores) what many of us have been pushing for months (if not years) and that is the goal of being successful in the WC is not just qualifying.

I hope we do well in Germany and I think we have a better chance than some think but I agree with the current state of our team, at least on the surface, going to round 2 would be tough--which is an indictment of progress of Iranian Football and those that defend the status quo.

Mamdali

[zzgloo]

Dear martin, I also know that you are great fan of TM and want nothing less than total success for Iran.

[ramingeles2000]

There's always going to be a great amount of analysis and mayhem before a huge tournament like the world cup...but anyone who is an athlete knows that the result of a competition usually comes down to team chemistry and how you're feeling on that given day.

if our team is confident, ready to grab 3 points, and we have a bit of fortune on our side, we should be able to draw both portugal and mexico.

[smanhoobi]

There's always going to be a great amount of analysis and mayhem before a huge tournament like the world cup...but anyone who is an athlete knows that the result of a competition usually comes down to team chemistry and how you're feeling on that given day.
if our team is confident, ready to grab 3 points, and we have a bit of fortune on our side, we should be able to draw both portugal and mexico.
That is a nice realistic approach to Iranian football in World Cup and football as a game in general. And I certainly hope that it happens.