Iran's Group- Discussion

[CHaMiLLionaire]

Group A South Korea, Iran, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Lebanon- What are your thoughts??

Here is the full match schedule:
Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012.
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013

IMO- it is a very doable group. Iran's first game against Uzbekistan(they are missing 5 key players including AFC player of the year Djeparov due to suspension). Then we play home to Qatar which is a must win, and away to Lebanon which is also another must win. Another win vs Lebanon at home, and a draw in both the qatar and Korea game should see us through to the WC. That way the last game vs Korea will just be meaningless in order to see who will top the group.

I am very optimistic, even though its a hard group- the schedule is what makes it easy for us to qualify. The first three games are a must win for Iran- and if we take these 9 points in the first 3 games then we should be guaranteed qualification by as much as 90%.

Iran chikareshh mikonee...sooooorakh sooooorakhesh mikone!

[Martin-Reza]

Well, those must wins are worrying me a bit, wouldn't be the first time we screw them up. But basically I agree with you.

Overall I think 6 points against Lebanon, 4 points against Uzbekistan and Qatar and 2 points against South Korea should get the job done. We need to be patient this time though. Had we simply accepted the 1-1 against KSA in Tehran last time instead of thinking of winning the game late, we would have been through, so no panicking this time!

I hope we can have a friendly against Azerbaidjan, Kazakhstan or some team like that in late May to prepare for Uzbekistan. As all of the leagues will be finished by early or middle of May, we could have a full friendly match then.

[Nokhodi]

As an Iranian I've learnt to expect the worst. I can never be comfortable about any of the games and I probably have the damaged heart of a 85 year old heart attack victim because of this team.

Having said that here is what I think will happen:

Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012: Iran wins 2-1
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012 - Iran ties 1-1
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012 - Iran wins 1-0
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012 Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012. Iran ties 1-1
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013 - Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013. - Iran wins 2-0.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013 - Iran loses 2-1

13 points in total which should be more than enough.
I worry about this team and its defense particularly during the first and last 10 minutes of every game.

[Doctor DOOM]

Having Uzbekistan, Qatar and Lebanon in the group means short distances for our away journeys which sets us apart from our direct competition in the group, South Korea.

Not trying to pre-judge anything. But by going over the history and the quality of the teams in our group, I think Korea's advance is pretty much highest among the rest of the teams. I'm not discounting iran or uzbeks, mind you. But am just being realistic. and I'm also leaving aside some bizarre and unforeseen twists in fate. that makes uzbekistan our main challenger to get the second spot.

Given Uzbekistan’s predicament in their first game with suspension of 5 of their players who deliberately tried to get yellow cards in their group games, in one of our most crucial group games we may yet be provided a great chance to get an away win from one of the stronger teams in the group. And given our following home game and then the third game against Lebanon, it wouldn’t be too much of a wishful thinking to think we stand a very good chance to get 9 points from our first 3 games. Should this happen, this would mean 50% of the job already done.

Will Quieroz exploit the Uzbek situation and go for the kill in our first game? Or will he keep it sedate and stick to the conventional rule of “aim for winning home games and draw the away ones”? I am not sure what will be his strategy. But all I hope is that he doesn’t leave things for too late in the campaign, given our last rapid-fire 3 match-days and the ultimate game away to South Korea. Our memory is still fresh from the last World Cup 2010 qualifiers, leaving things too late, with our last game away to the very same South Korea.



this is a marvelous opportunity for us.
imagine getting more than half the points needed for direct qualification ( I think 15-16 would do it for us) out of your first 3 games.
that means the remaining 5 games to get another 6-7 points (allowing for a couple of home games wt uzbeks and lebanese)

[KeonKish]

As an Iranian I've learnt to expect the worst. I can never be comfortable about any of the games and I probably have the damaged heart of a 85 year old heart attack victim because of this team.

Having said that here is what I think will happen:

Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012: Iran wins 2-1
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012 - Iran ties 1-1
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012 - Iran wins 1-0
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012 Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012. Iran ties 1-1
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013 - Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013. - Iran wins 2-0.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013 - Iran loses 2-1

13 points in total which should be more than enough.
I worry about this team and its defense particularly during the first and last 10 minutes of every game.

we should roll over qatars face if we have Andranik to replace P.nouri, P nouri sucks. I think we need to get out points from Uzbekistan qatar and lebanon and we should make it through if we tie with KOR

[Hadi]

we just struggled to draw against the fourth seeded team of our group...yet we need 6 points from them to ensure qualifications (basically we need 12 from Lebanon and Qatar together and 4 from Uzbekistan). no easy task with the current quality of our football.

[maij]

I have been around far too long to know that there is no such thing as easy group in the final round of World Cup qualifiers! However , that said , this draw seems like the closest Team Melli can get , on paper , to have a moderate path to qualification to Brazil in 2014.

There are many things to consider in these matches. There are always the ever-present concerns , like our good friends already mentioned.
All those easy teams that we think will be walkovers . I worry about that a lot.
The winning mentality of the coach, who has not shown that he goes for the jugular. Will he be brave , adventurous . conservative or will be the type that always calculates "what if" scenarios?
Will there be good preparations with camps and friendly matches , or will it be the usual Iranian disorganization and missed opportunities.
Will we see some new blood given chances , or we will stick with our old and slow familiar names?
How committed Carlos Queiroz will be to his job and Iran? Do not assume that he will be with the team all the way to Brazil. There are some interesting developments going on right now in Iran's Football that might affect the future of CQ working with TM.

These are a few of the questions that determines the ultimate fate of Team Melli.

Technically speaking . Iran still has many problems in all the lines from goalkeeping and defense to the forward line. The only line that I am so comfortable with and have quite a handsome number of player ready for the job , is the midfield. The most worrying , naturally , is the defense. In order to improve the quality of the team and patch up the defenses , CQ needs to work hard and close with the team.

I have a feeling that Uzbekistan and Iran might pip Korea for the two top spots.:blush:

[zzgloo]

Salam be Hamegee....
....
It realy should n't matter who we play.......here is where QC values should come to the rescue....,supposedly a better forign coach, which I am a believer he is.......rescue not in a sense that he would do miracles and make us over achive...but only help us not to underachive....help us not to have those usual TM slump periods....those lapses we have gotten used to.....
....
QC just said after the draw,that : "" we can not relax..and preparation is the name of the game,because that is the only thing in our control "".
....
IRAN & S.Korea are favorits to advance from our group by all odds makers...,I am a firm believer,QC is the right coach...and his main job is to do what is expected of us by the odds makers, nothing more.

[Doctor DOOM]

davoud had this little stats on uzbeks in the football forum:






Team
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
+/-
Pts


I.R. IRAN
6
3
3
0
17
5
12
12


QATAR
6
2
4
0
10
5

5
10






KOREA
REPUBLIC
6
4
1
1
14
4
10
13


LEBANON
6
3
1
2
10
14
-4

10






UZBEKIS'N
6
5
1
0
8
1
7
16




Largest Win:
Iran 6-0 ( vs Bahrain)
Qatar 4-0 (vs Indonesia)
South Korea 6-0 (Lebanon)
Lebanon 3-1 (vs UAE)
Uzbekistan 3-0 (vs Tajikistan)

Biggest Loss:
Iran – None
Qatar - None
South Korea 1-2 (vs Lebanon)
Lebanon 0-6 (vs South Korea)
Uzbekistan - None

for example uzbeks won 5 games in a group that had japan and kuwait in it. that makes them a tough team. especially since they allowed only 1 goal. at the same time, they scored only 8 which means they struggle to score goals and are not very effective.

or lebanon, despite qualifying has struggled to score goals (10) while letting others score against them freely (14).

qatar has the most draws (4)




and juxtaposing the above with the fact that 5 of their players are suspended, can anyone find out how many of these 5 players are their defensive players?
from the looks of it their success is more for not conceding goals than scoring them. and if some of their main defenders are suspended, then CQ has no business to keep a "safe & conservative" team for the first game which has provided us with a massive chance of getting a win in a very tough away tie.

[K. Nader]

The following are the suspended players and their corresponding positions on the field:

1. Server Djeparov (MF)
2. Sanjar Tursunov (MF)
3. Shavkat Mulladjanov (DF)
4. Vagiz Galiulin (MF)
5. Islom Tuhtahujaev (DF)

Given a healthy Iranian side, we should be able to control the midfield and push the ball forward. That being said, the speedy Uzbeks can be extremely dangerous during counter-attacks, especially with their two talented forwards, Maksim Shatskikh and Alexander Geynrikh.

[Doctor DOOM]

Thanks nader jan.

so it is the uzbeks' strength that is affected by the suspensions. great news for us

I think 2 defenders and 3 mids missing from their main squad is one of those opportunities we would never get. and if we have learned anything from the last campaign where we started slowly and kept a slow pace of gathering points (which eventually got us into trouble), I think CQ has no way but to field an attacking team to exploit this.

another advantage we stand (IF we go for the win) is most probably by the time we meet korea in TEHRAN, we could (should) be in a commanding position in the table (with 3 wins out of 3 hopefully) which puts that extra bit of pressure on the koreans to close the midway of their campaign with enough points. and even if this one splits the points, then with another win in our 5th matchday we shd be in a very comfortable position.

third advantage is given uzbek's visit to korea and a possible loss there, this kind of start for us puts enough distance between us and them to put them on the back foot for the rest of the campaign.

I guess it all hinges on a winning start.

[Doctor DOOM]

Thanks to Saeed-noro for digging out the info now we know:


http://www.transfermarkt.de/de/usbekistan/startseite/nationalmannschaft_3563.html


give a look to their team, i also checked this right after the draw, and i noticed following:


Shavkat Mullazhanov (26, Central Defender, 18 caps, no goals) - Al Ahly Sports Club (Qatar) - worth 150.000 €
Sanzhar Tursunov (25, Right Middlefield/Wing, alternativ left middlefield, 14 caps, 1 goal) - Alania Vladikavkaz (Russia) - worth 1.500.000 € (!)
Server Djeparov (29, Central Middlefield/Playmaker, 80 caps, 17 goals, AFC Player of the Year &. Captain of Uzbekistan Nationalteam) - Al Shabab Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) - worth 2.500.000 € (!!!)
Islom Tukhtahujaev (22, Defender, 18 caps, no goals, also U23, U21, U20 experience) - Lokomotiv Tashkent (Uzbekistan) - worth 200.000 €
Vagiz Galiulin (22, Left Wing/middlefield/Striker, 8 caps, no goals) - Sibir Novosibirisk (Russia) worth 450.000 €


by the way, did they also collect possible yellow second cards vs. Japan and so additional suspended players for the Iran game?? :D :eyebrows: :D

Seems that they are key players, specially Djeparov and Tursunov.

Other key players of Uzbekistan are: Denisov, Nesterov (GK), Akhmedov, Kapadzeh, Shatskikh, Geynrikh, Karpenko, Bikmaev.

They will miss their central defender and specially both wings and key player djeparov. Their best player, after Djeparov is Akhmedov, which play for Anchi Maccalllalaaah in Russia, the new rich club, where Eto´o also kicks...


All in all good players are missing the game.

He must have gone through some effort to get the data. and it IS quite useful.

to begin with I think most of the players missing are their main players as 4 of the 5 players are their legionnaires. so that makes the uzbek team more vulnerable and perhaps less experienced. looks like their flanks especially as we see full backs and a central defender. that provides great chance for heidari/mahini/pouladi/... joining in the attack.

secondly, with their captain missing, I assume they'd have a rough time conducting the midfield, which is the key area where we can impose our game on them and start our attacks and offense from.


The more we find out and look into the shape of the uzbek team, the more I am convinced this is one of those very RARE opportunities gifted to us and I doubt we'd ever get such a chance to get the perfect start to a WC campaign.

[Mansoor]

doostan, are you aware of the fact that Uzbeks without those 5 players defeated Japan in Japan? I know both teams were qualified already but that match did effect the seeding and I don't think Japan was taking easy in it's official home match. Regardless, any win in any situation at Japan explains the 5 players were not "that" important as some are describing.

Uzbek is the most favored team in this group to advance not Korea. In prelim, they won 5 out of 6 matches, only with one tie against Japan. Japan was down 0-1 in that match till 65th min. Uzbeks were one goal away from winnnin 6 out of 6 in a group that included Japan and North Korea.

The player that Iran should fear the most is available for the match and that is Maksim.

I am sure any suspension of any starting player effects the team but I don't think it will be the deciding factor. Uzbeks will still play at home with a very strong squad.

[Martin-Reza]

^ You are absolutely right Mansour, a draw in Tashkent would certainly be a great result.

Maxim Shatskikh and Aleksander Geynrikh are a deadly combo upfront. In the back they are very solid anyways and with Nesterov they have a reliable keeper. Their midfield might be weakened by the absence of Server Djeparov, but they still have some decent midfielders left, such as Timur Kapadze or Viktor Karpenko.

[Doctor DOOM]

^
mate, I would hardly call them "deadly combo" if the entire team has only managed to score 8 goals (how many of those 8 goals have these 2 scored??)
I'd be more worried about their defense rather than offense. and them missing 2-3 of their main defenders is one gift horse we shd not pass up on.



well, mansour brings up a good point. however it still doesnt change the fact that japan didnt need the points of that game.
some even say they may have even wanted to avoid Iran which was flying high (do note the highest goal scoring team of the qualifiers IS a major factor for coaches to worry about) as opposed to south korea who were struggling and didnt really convince their fans.

I am sure had japan needed the point or the points of their game we'd have seen a totally different japan.


besides, even if we go by this new theory, I still say we shd go for the win and not a draw. simply because if we make the uzbeks into some massive giants, then we stand a better chance of getting a 3 points out of the tie when many of their starting line up are missing .... rather than waiting for their full roster that is feared to be super-duper strong (who may even beat us in the tehran return game!!)

all that said, our objective of winning in tashkent shd not change
choose whatever theory & reasoning, ... ironically the objective & target still stays the same: we MUST get the win in tashkent
either becoz we meet them at their weakest or becoz we may end up losing to them in the return leg with the return of 5 more extra strong players.

[Doctor DOOM]

and just to get a better grip on their offense, I just checked their stats and scorers in the final round

first of all their biggest margin of victory is a 3-0 against the lowly tajikistan [ scorers - ahmedov odil, geynrich aleksander, tursunov sanjar ]
you leave that one out, you have them scoring only 1 goal in every game:
a 1-0 at tajikistan [ scorer - Maksim ]
a 1-1 draw with japan [ scorer - dejaprov ]
a 1-0 in DPR [ scorer - geynrich aleksander ]
a 1-0 vs. DPR [ scorer - Kapadze ]
and a 1-0 at Japan (where japan didnt need the points anyway) [ scorer - shadrin aleksander ]

the red players are the suspended ones.

this means this "deadly combo" (sorry mate. old habits die hard :D ) has a grand total of 3 goals amongst themselves.
and since I'm feeling pretty perky and fine today, I will throw in Maksim .. for free ... just for you,.... (with a thick arabic accent) huh mai ferend, huh? okaaaay.

so their 3 top players remaining have scored a total of 4 goals 2 of which have been against the lowly tajikistan.
and in the match up between them and japan that MATTERED, only djeparov scored the goal ... who is suspended.

so I wouldnt lose serious sleep over them scoring (am not discounting the danger. but I'm being realistic) while I would really work hard on breaking that tight, miserly defense.

so anyway we slice it, we MUST GET THAT WIN in tashkent. however we look at it.




and if we end up being too passive and SETTLE for draws, they may pile up and ... well, we know what happened to us the last time, dont we?

our traditional problem has usually been that we lose focus, get too c0cky and slip up against weaker and smaller teams, while we play well against tougher, bigger teams. so I wouldnt want to unnecessarily lose points just becoz our lads get c0cky again and draw to qatar or lebanon.

[Hadi]

dont worry DD

we will struggle to a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw in Uzbekistan and people will tell us to relax and 'it was a good result' or 'it was a good start'

Just like what happened to us against Saudi last round.

[zzgloo]

I agree with Paymaan's assesment of the Uzbacks low scoring offense.....as they will most probabaly have the highest number of "Ties " in the group......and to beat Uzbaks ,we need to get the most points out of the the other teams...because they will not.

[Nokhodi]

dont worry DD

we will struggle to a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw in Uzbekistan and people will tell us to relax and 'it was a good result' or 'it was a good start'

Just like what happened to us against Saudi last round.

You really are glass half empty kind of guy aren't you :)? We also started the same way for WC 2006 against Bahrain.

[maij]

Something I have noticed about Uzbeks through the years, is that their scoring stats has always been on the moderate to low side comparing to the big boyz of Asia and certainly in comparison to Iran.
Another point is their lack of concentration as they can be disrupted quite easily when scored upon.
I watched their U23 team a few days back playing UAE at home and needing a win to qualify to London. They were 2 goals ahead and they ended up losing the match 2-4 !! despite their team being the more organized but quite poor at finishing.

But then again , this is football and in football what is on paper is not necessarily reflected on the field.

A win away at Tashkent would be a great start for Team Melli and I really really hope that CQ goes for a win which very much possible , of course. But somehow and from track record so far , I can't see CQ being Mr. Brave & courageous in Tashkent......I hope I am wrong.

[Martin-Reza]

dont worry DD

we will struggle to a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw in Uzbekistan and people will tell us to relax and 'it was a good result' or 'it was a good start'

Just like what happened to us against Saudi last round.

It would be a good result and it was a good result last time. As you could see later, Saudi wasn't a team easy to beat. We should have taken the draw in Azadi as well, the point would have been our direct ticket to WC, just see the final table.

Daei's mistake was the same mistake you and DD are committing now, dreaming of something not necessary and thereby wasting something valueable you have. He didn't position a player at the far post, instead opted to line him up upfront for a possible counter. We all know the result.

Yes, we are capeable of beating Uzbekistan, but they are also capeable of beating us, especially in Tashkent. I hope for a win which is what we should generally aim for, but if the score is 1-1 five minutes from time, only a fool would expose the defense to push for a win.

[persianallstars]

It would be a good result and it was a good result last time. As you could see later, Saudi wasn't a team easy to beat. We should have taken the draw in Azadi as well, the point would have been our direct ticket to WC, just see the final table.

Daei's mistake was the same mistake you and DD are committing now, dreaming of something not necessary and thereby wasting something valueable you have. He didn't position a player at the far post, instead opted to line him up upfront for a possible counter. We all know the result.

Yes, we are capeable of beating Uzbekistan, but they are also capeable of beating us, especially in Tashkent. I hope for a win which is what we should generally aim for, but if the score is 1-1 five minutes from time, only a fool would expose the defense to push for a win.

exactly

[Doctor DOOM]

to Martin

I really wonder if your mind would feel like exploding everytime you watch an AWAY team play attacking football and actually win, right? :D
I mean that shdnt sit well with the norms of this world or the plane of reality and the Newtonian laws of physics. right?
I'd love to see your face when, for example, you're watching an away side attack and then score the winning goal(s) the next time this happens. could you plz take a pic for us all, of your facial expression?? :D

you'd be sitting there all shocked and scanalized saying: "No, No ... you're not supposed to win this game. No, you can NOT score. NO , no no , ... this is not supposed to happen. FOUL! FOUL! PENALTY! CORNER! service fault! ... aaarrrgghhh , something ... ANYTHING". then you'd throw the remote out the window and call fifa to rectify this mistake of away teams winning games or scoring late goals. "There SHOULD be a law against it"!

but jokes apart, this thing is about "once bitten, twice shy".
we failed to qualify the last time only becoz we had too many DRAWS ( FIVE draws out of the 8 games!! 2 wins and 1 loss) & too few wins, and never exploited our opportunities. and allowed a crappy, piss-poor saudi to get ahead of us (who eventually were so bad to actually lose to bahrain anyway)!!!
And now, to settle for yet another draw in THIS particular situation (plz go back and read the second page, stats and records and the nature of our luck in the first game, ...), then it seems we havent learned the most basic lesson from our last failure.
and if man doesnt learn from past failures, he's bound to repeat them again ... and again, and again ...



to Nokhodi
amoo, there's been enough talk about how lame that qualification route was. it was so lame it became INCOMPARABLE for .... eternity :rolleyes: :)
however if you manage to point to ONE occasion when we had such an easy set up which qualifies it as a comparison to other WCQ editions, then I'd accept.
when, in aaaalllll our history, did we have:
1- exactly 50% chance of DIRECT qualification
2- exactly 63% chance of qualifying for the WC
3- our group comprised of 2 big teams(one of which was us), 2 small (3rd or at best leaning towards 2nd tier) teams

[Adesor Vafaseya]

Uzbeks and Koreans are worrying me most.
Many are underestimating the Uzbeks, but in fact they are stronger than many ppl think they are.
It is a difficult group for Iran... I am confident vs Lebanon and also Qatar but it all depends on a good preparation... something that scares me about IFF sometimes .... (or most of times) ..... ((if not always)) ....

[Doctor DOOM]

After jabbari's injury and hadadifar's loss of form, and given karimi's age still an issue for me, I was quite worried about a soft center for TM. But Md Nori's great form and some classy passing especially in asia gives me hope. If he continues with this form & passing, I'm sure he is capable of feeding our forward line nicely

[maij]

I agree with Martin Reza's analysis and way of thinking.

In international competitions ,the game of mind by the coaches is much more important than the players selection because the latter is variable fixed list but the former is fixed. The coach must have a strategy which makes or breaks a coach. The example of Ali Daei and the Saudi match was an excellent one. Daei suffered paid the price of his inexperience in the minds game and that is expected due to his relatively short coaching career.

The mentality of playing beautiful , slick and smooth football and winning by a good margin against opponents ( who have no history , as the Iranian TV commentators always remind us !) will not necessarily guarantee you success or qualification. Planning the match , deciding what is the minimal acceptable result for the team , setting game plans according to your players ability and studying the opponent should take priority.

I personally do not like the Geronimo approach in football. Sometimes your team , although better and more experienced , can not beat an determined and stubborn opponent is a tournament . To me , it is suicidal to go for an all out attack to get a winner to save face, instead the team should pace itself and try to maintain whatever result and start all over again in the next match.

[Doctor DOOM]

lol. as if having 5 players suspended and the change of venue from a bigger stadium to a tiny little 8000 capacity one wasnt enough for the poor uzbek coach, now it seems maxim shatskikh is doubtful for the iran game!!!!!!

come onnnnn. if we dont roll over them I dont know what would compel us to go for the kill

غیبت 6 بازیکن اصلی ازبکستان مقابل ایران

شاتسکیخ مصدوم شد

سرمربی تیم ملی فوتبال ازبکستان در حالی 29 بازیکن را به اردوی آماده سازی این تیم دعوت کرده است که علاوه بر محرومیت پنج بازیکن اصلی، یک لژیونر دیگر این تیم هم به خاطر مصدومیت نمی*تواند مقابل ایران بازی کند.تیم ملی فوتبال ازبکستان در حالی خود را برای بازی روز 14 خرداد با ایران آماده می*کند که درخواست آنها برای بخشش پنج بازیکن اصلی این تیم به فیفا رد شده است.جباروف، تورسنوف، گالیانین، ملادژانوف و اسلام توهتاجوف این غایبان هستند و "ماکسیم الکساندرویچ شاتسکیخ" بازیکن "آرسنال کیف" اوکراین به خاطرآنچه که سایت این باشگاه سرما خوردگی اعلام کرده است، قادر به همراهی تیم ملی این کشور نیست. به گزارش سایت این باشگاه، ماکسیم در حالت خوشبینانه هم نمی*تواند تیم ملی ازبکستان را در این دو مسابقه همراهی کند

[Martin-Reza]

^ Good for us, but we still won't roll over a well organized and good team on the road.

[BacheLot]

Cautious offensive is the approach to take vs. Uzbeks..!
We must control the MF & possession for most part & hope for a win via set play or a cross..!

I think the best thing going for us vs this quality proven Uzbek team, is the mental/confidence advantage steming from our historic successful stints vs them..!
let's face it, after a highflying WCQ start by CQ's team, TM has been in a serious funk as of late, especially in our last 2 qualifiers & the only decent friendly we played since vs. Jordan ..!( in fact, only a super performance from the now injured Dejagha saved us blushes vs the supposed weak Qatar @ Home..!)
that 3rd tie in a row, coming back from behind, also showed our opponents by now have figured CQ's prefered tactics & formations & familiaried themselves with how to combat it.
we also witnessed how vulnerable our D is vs swift counters, & add to that our currently decimated attacking line & shaky rahmati, 7 starters missing almost half the training camp..! & we would be foolish to adopt an all out attacking style in an Away match ..!

Conventional wisdom would tell u that u go for a tie away & win @ home vs decent/respectable opponents & try to get the full 6 points vs the obvious inferior team( lebonan).
Only a hopeless weak team like lebonan would adopt a risky approach from get go..! We must not get overconfident @ anytime during this final round & only incoporate risk in our approach throughout as deemed necessary by our overall form as a team, based on overall standings in the group & for most part on the game day, purely based on game situations ( which means for most part second halves of any away match, even vs Lebanon ..!)

Lucky for us, Uzbeks are missing some key would be starters..! sure that their other players may not be as technically skilled as most of ours but unlike our players (& arab Arab teams ..!) most all uzbek players have better fundamental football skills & tactical sense ..!
They most probably will adopt a somewhat conservative defensive approach in their game against us & hope to snatch a late or a very early goal..!
Ps
I have total faith in CQ's final adopted strategy ..! & hope we don't slip up & come back empty handed..!

[zzgloo]

TM must start with a " Bang ", and beating the Uzbaks right off the bat !
Despit some freindly games of TM under QC.....the TM is still an " unknown ", for most teams..may be a little less for the Qatar team......
There has been a lot of changes..since Ghotbi Era for the opposing teams to analyse TM.and QC has much more videos of Uzbaks to look at than Uzbak's coach does of TM under QC;and put that together with the players Uzbaks miss,it will be great situation for TM,specialy since QC is a better strategiest/analyst than the Uzbaks' head coach.........beside...Ashkan Dejagah,will be a wild card and a surprize to opposing the teams.

[Doctor DOOM]

let's face it, after a highflying WCQ start by CQ's team, TM has been in a serious funk as of late,

I'm sorry, but did I miss something? or have I gotten too old to remember?
HIGH FLYING?
take out the 6-0 bahrain game where we faced the 10 man team for almost the entirety of the game, where was this high-flying that I dont remember?
surely it cant be the 4-0 of maldives. nor the qatar draws. it cant be against the minnows, indonesia either.

I'm not putting CQ down. I also do recognize his stature and place in world football. But as far as his IRAN stint (TM performance on a pitch) is considered, I'm not so convinced. although his professionalism and insistence on the right attitude is a great positive. I'm just hoping we do see some high flying performances in this round.

[Paradigm]

I am worried by all these recent injuries, specially in the forward line... I hope the team can still get the result in Uzbekistan.

[zzgloo]

It seems nobody is listening to CQ in IRAN...The guy is pissed,and he has right to be....
It is major fvckup,to have players not available ( ten of them,and the majority of the TM players ),specialy them coming after a long season and immidiate asian club tournements.....perspolise and Sepahan,and Esteghlal players....
This is going to be far more important a handicap..than Uzbaks having some injured and disqualified players playing at home and rested,and studing TM and train for TM.....in thier own home......
it does not look good !

[Doctor DOOM]

But Bahram jan, what do you expect the clubs to do?

as I said in the football forum, if the gap between the acl games and the Turkey camp (or when he expected the players to join the team) was large enough, then CQ would have had enough justifiable reason. But there simply wasnt. and as Martin rightfully pointed out, he expects (nearly demands) professionalism from the clubs. But when it comes to TM call ups he expects them to behave differently from pro clubs (who keep their players until 2-3 days before national games)!!

He started his rumblings and mumblings around Thursday/Friday that nobody listens to him and nobody cares and ... et etc etc.

seeing that sepahan, ss and pp have extremely important (almost season-defining) games on TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY, that leaves a very short gap (around 4-5 days) in between.
point 1- gap of 4-5 days

secondly, pp was to travel to saudi. and for that, you need at least a day or two to acclimatize with the venue, the ground and climate. so for pp that gap would have been even SHORTER. say 2-3 days

even ss was to travel to sepahan and I doubt it would be prudent for them to go there on the day of the game. at the latest, they'd go there on the morning of the previous day. and that's the LATEST. so for ss, the gap would have been 3-4 days.

Sepahan also needs their single ( ridiculous and highly questionable, as sepahan are the champs, the best goal average and pretty solid defense with the best goal keeper of the league!) call up, hosseini a couple of days before the game.

Now, how can you expect the clubs to release their players.
and the players to travel with TM to turkey.
stay there for 2-3 days only
and then travel all the way to esfahan and jeddah
and in a couple of days play a high stress game and immediately fly back all the way to turkey
..... and not be extremely travel-fatigued, tired and injury prone after that?

so what benefit would CQ get from those 2-3 days that outweighs such a fatigued and injury-prone possibility?
surely CQ must know the dangers and the risk definitely outweighs the benefits of those 2-3 days.

I'd rather have a team that has been under less travel fatigue and strain.


and I'm not even going to bring up who pays the livelihood of these players. although, a very important factor too

[Doctor DOOM]

having said all that, I still think CQ has his 8 players for at least 10 days to practice with and go through his strategies.
besides, these 8 players have been playing alongside each other for many years now. 5 are from a single club; ss. add aghili, neku, and khalatbari to the fold, then you have a team that pretty much knows its players and all CQ has to do is tactics and game planning.
10 days for that ought to be enough.

and we still face a very weakened uzbekistan and it would be a great shame if we go in looking for a draw. such opportunities and chances knock our door only once in a blue moon. and it is stupidity if we dont grab them and go with the "draw away and win at home" rule. Daei tired that and look how we ended up.
lets not leave it to the last 2-3 match-days to get the required points which usually ends in disaster and failure

[BacheLot]

I'm sorry, but did I miss something? or have I gotten too old to remember?
HIGH FLYING?
take out the 6-0 bahrain game where we faced the 10 man team for almost the entirety of the game, where was this high-flying that I dont remember?
surely it cant be the 4-0 of maldives. nor the qatar draws. it cant be against the minnows, indonesia either.

I'm not putting CQ down. I also do recognize his stature and place in world football. But as far as his IRAN stint (TM performance on a pitch) is considered, I'm not so convinced. although his professionalism and insistence on the right attitude is a great positive. I'm just hoping we do see some high flying performances in this round.
Well the highFlying is a subjective adjective & can mean different things to different folks..!:D
I just think many here have forgotten the Utter Disaster of a TM @ the time that it was inherited by CQ..! Go back, read through some the threads after the AC debacle & few here really believed that we could even survive the last round of qualifiers ..! Much less to top the group, with relavent ease..! Outside the very unlucky draw @ Qatar, we pretty much dominated other opponents, getting more & more formidable game by game..! until the last two qualifiers..! There has been an obvious let-off in our overall performances " as a team" & our results in key games have been reflective of such ..! Now if u don't see it as such, Then that's just your overall perspective..!!
If this was TM coming off the Bahrain trashing then yea I woulda perhaps agreed to a more offensive aggressive approach your suggesting vs Uzbeks..! But to do such in light of today's ill prepared, confidence-shaken, forward-decimatedTM, vs a Solid, defensively formidable, well organized Opponent playing @ Home ! ????
Then it's more like a real stupid gamble to me..!

[Doctor DOOM]

my point was the adjective used.
beating minnows maldives & indonesia by 3-4 goals and getting 2 draws against qatar and a draw against bahrain (I did say aside from the wonky 6-0 in iran) shd in nobody's books be called "high flying". an improvement from last tournament? maybe. definitely a team with more courage and guts than that of ghotbi's. but "high-flying"? No.

well, in my books high-flying would be if we thrashed qatar (as we had enough chances ... no thanks to jello-legs ansarifard :D ) both home and away as well as bahrain. I'm not even gonna count indonesia, maldives, madagascar, palestine, ... arre, oore, & shamsi-kooreh and their distant poor cousins!

my point is while we shd acknowledge improvements and progress, we shd not be so easily satisfied and content to call those results as high flying, no matter how gutless we looked with ghotbi in key games. we were the team that destroyed south korea 6-2, saudis 3-0, defeated japan, won 4 asian games championships and 3 asia cups, .. etc etc.

[zzgloo]

Payman Jaan...
The issue is not the clubs...It is the IFF !!
QC said he noticed the wrong League schedualing when he signed and mentioned them to IFF..and asked them if they could finish up earlier.....Later,he was told they will try...
Keep in mind what CQ wants to do....he has two things different than other previouse head coaches.....one,that he believes full heartedly,everthing is in preparation !...and he prides himself in preparation..and two, he is a " Teaching coach "..that is to say, his back ground from u-20 of portugal and producing many top players had been because of his " teaching " !!
More over,as we just saw last week with his frustrations with some players who " Could not Look up " while playing.....he thinks, Iranian players particularly need additional teaching !....in many Tactical aspects that seperates them from European players ( aside from lack of professionalities )...
Considering all the above.....he needs more time with players ,particularly for the first game..and particularly with so many missing, coming so late, and coming tired.

[Doctor DOOM]

I'd like to know why even the supposed world renowned celebrated coaches like CQ fail to understand in such a tight campaign with such a hellish last run of 3 games, why dont they make sure they collect as many points as possible from the beginning 3-4 games?
this cant be a "man-daravordi" theory. all the successful teams apply it. look at japan and korea who always aim to collect points early on so they avoid the final ties' stress (whether they accomplish it is a different matter. often they do. but even those times they dont, you can clearly see they did go after the points early on in their campaigns with their aggressive games even in AWAY games)


why play these games so cautiously and defensively? referring to single forward formation + two def-mids. fat load of good having 2 DM's have done for us!!!!

I'm not even getting into his love affair with the ballerina and the strange, wonky deal of first dropping her and then starting with her! I'm just talking about an overall strategy for the campaign progress. why leave it to the last games?

this is reflected in the way our coaches approach a single game too. too much time spent on "assessing" the other team, thus making the process of getting the winning goal that much more stressful and hard by allotting the final 30-20 minutes of the game ... which given the traditional iranian psychology, is already a major source of stress. and now, with the last 3-4 years of frenzied feeding and fattening of our players, a task made 10 times harder!

how much worse could we get and how deep in trouble would we be if we adopted a more aggressive and attacking posture. towards an individual game as well as a campaign? would we be in a worse shape and spot that we are now? I refuse to think so.



so when some of us say "it's early on and drawing a game (we shd have won) is not the end of the world and are happy with 0-0 draws, they might want to think about the last 3 ties that NOW, after yesterday's disaster look like a bloody humongous mountain to climb



***************

on another note, what the hell is it with us and dropping points to the worst teams in our groups .. EACH AND EVERY BLOODY CAMPAIGN?

MK lost to qatar in 98 Q's 2-0 when we thought we'd roll over them!
in 2002 Q's Ciro lost 3-1 to bahrain, another minnow team that was already eliminated!
in 2006 Q's, we must thank god for blessing us with an oil-tanker load of luck by making the group so easy my aunt would qualify from such an easy group. even with that easy-as-shit group, we dropped points to bahrain, whom we had just thrashed by 4 goals mere 3-4 months prior!
in 2010 we dropped precious points to UAE, the dead last team in the group!
and now, in 2014, losing to lebanon and drawing wt qatar in azadi!


something is wrong with our players ... no, all IRANIANs' psyche.
why are we so screwed up in the head to get so linient and relaxed when playing smaller teams?
and why are we so retarded to not learn from history?